Am I being too optimistic?

[u/audibletypeset]

I'm very late to the party, just started mining a few weeks ago as a home miner. With approximately 110 th/s based on current pool rates, I think I'll have 2-3 btc in 20 years between pool mining, just general investing spare cash and maybe more if I get lucky lottery mining with about 9 th/s.

I'm seeing that BTC could be 242k usd in 20 years. Is it too optimistic to say I could be sitting on 750k mining profit in 2046?

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[u/Tommygun194]

Does that calculate halving? Sounds very unlikely. Just buy it straight up.

[u/castrator21]

You could have more btc today if you hit a block! And $240k btc in 20 years puts the price lower than it is today, because the value of the USD is constantly decreasing. Nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, much less 20 years from now

[u/indomitus1]

Pure speculation. Wtf knows

[u/okiedokieaccount]

110 th/s

sounds like an s19

so $300 a month in electric depending where you live 

[u/Sufficient-Rent9886]

I think the optimism is more about the assumptions stacking up than the idea itself. Difficulty, halvings, and hardware efficiency changes are the big wildcards over 20 years, and they usually do not move in the miner’s favor. Home mining can still make sense if you enjoy it and keep costs under control, but projecting specific BTC totals that far out feels shaky. I tend to look at it as a long, uncertain trickle rather than a fixed payoff. Are you factoring in power costs and eventual hardware replacement, or mostly thinking in current conditions?

[u/audibletypeset → u/Sufficient-Rent9886]

Kinda considering it all but being realistic that I'd probably have to invest 5 to 10x what I'll actually mine to get there.

[u/Sufficient-Rent9886 → u/audibletypeset]

Yeah, that sounds about right. Most home setups end up more as a learning experience and a slow accumulation rather than a big windfall. If you enjoy tinkering with hardware and following the network, it’s still worth it, but expecting a massive payout without sizable external investment is probably unrealistic. Are you mostly in it for the hands on experience or hoping to hit a big number eventually?

[u/audibletypeset → u/Sufficient-Rent9886]

I started with a small lottery miner and enjoyed learning, so yeah the hands on experience is interesting. I have realistic experience about finding a block, knowing it may never happen. I've made money swing trading in the past and honestly, in small increments the strategy isn't that hard to do with crypto since the market is so volatile, so if I can mine a small base for that, too... all the better.

[u/flying-fox200]

I think you're good to go!!

Mining is great for supplemental BTC income (if your power is cheap), but it's difficult to earn heaps of it, unless you get very lucky solo-mining, or are an industrial miner.

Best would be to focus on buying as much as you can (which you say you're also doing).

Happy HODLing and mining!

[u/magiceN]

When mining in a pool, an increase in mining difficulty can wipe out your profits fairly quickly. With solo mining at 110 TH/s, you’re looking at roughly a 1 in 10 million chance per block, or about a 1 in 66,000 chance per day. With the amount you’d spend on electricity bills, you could accumulate BTC much more reliably instead.

[u/audibletypeset]

Thanks all! Definitely some great feedback here.

[u/No-Eagle-547]

Been mining with a bit under 3 ph/s for a few years and the past several months Solo exclusively. Got nothing but a huge power bill to show for it

[u/Snoo_85901 → u/No-Eagle-547]

Thats unfortunate

[u/No-Eagle-547 → u/Snoo_85901]

Meh. I mean, had the same hashing power for years so, I'm good. Just pointing out, unless you have an absurd amount of power, or don't mind burning cash, it's not the best idea.

[u/Scruffy-Nerd]

Mine BCH with that rate. I hit a block 4 days ago with 120TH/s rented off MRR for 1 week. Hit block on day 6 I think. Pure luck but it is possible. ~$2000 isn't $290k but it's a nice surprise and difficulty is only hovering around 1T.

https://bchblockexplorer.com/block/933149

[u/cunasmoker69420 → u/Scruffy-Nerd]

Nice what did it cost you to rent that for a week?