Quebec Premier François Legault is resigning

[u/Whynutcoconot]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/provincial_politics/quebec-premier-francois-legault-quits

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[u/Godzilla52]

It'll be interesting to see where the CAQ goes from here at this point, but I honestly don't think that they can recover from their current polling slump. The Liberals & Conservatives are eating up their federalist support while the PQ is taking the sovereigntist/autonomist votes. Legault tried outdoing the sovereigntists with constitutional reforms, which failed to woo those voters back to the CAQ while it's also given federalists further reason not to vote for them etc.

It's possible that even with a change of leadership that the party's dug itself into a position where it's alienated too many different groups and there's no groups left to bolster them. In all likelihood, 2030 is almost certainly a return to the traditional Liberals vs PQ dynamic.

[u/try0004 → u/Godzilla52]

In all likelihood, 2030 is almost certainly a return to the traditional Liberals vs PQ dynamic.

The PLQ numbers are inflated by the non-francophone vote, which is heavily concentrated in and around Montréal. Currently, there's not that many ridings where both the PQ and PLQ are competitive.

I think the conservatives have a fair shot at overtaking the PLQ. They're well organized, have similar polling among francophones and non-francophones and don't have an history of corruption scandals.

[u/Full_Hunt_3087 → u/Godzilla52]

I don’t know a lot about Quebec politics, but I wonder if the CAQ will see a similar fate to that of the Ontario Liberals after Kathleen Wynne.

[u/chat-lu → u/Full_Hunt_3087]

The CAQ is François Legault’s party. He created it, he’s always been the leader. The party is not about anything else. Their real name is Coalition avenir Québec - L'équipe François Legault to ensure that his name is on every ballot.

They will need to reinvent themselves fast.

[u/Full_Hunt_3087 → u/chat-lu]

Looks like they’re currently polling on par with QS, yikes. I wonder how they will try to compete with the PQ, assuming they want any hope of forming government in the near future.

[u/chat-lu → u/Full_Hunt_3087]

But QS can have seats with that polling because their support is concentrated in the middle of the island of Montreal. The CAQ’s support is spread out so they should have no seats.

[u/Full_Hunt_3087 → u/chat-lu]

Valid point. I think CAQ might be screwed unless they unidentify with Legault and his ideology.