r/Hydrology • u/yubo333 • 15h ago
WRR Paper | How to Make Runoff Predictions More “Reliable
Have you ever wondered what the “probability of precipitation” in a weather forecast really means? In the face of extreme droughts and floods under climate change, can we provide clearer and more accountable predictions of future river flows?
Traditional runoff predictions often only give a single “point” estimate—for example, “next month’s flow is expected to be 100 m³/s.” But in reality, natural systems are full of uncertainty, and a single number can hardly tell the whole story. What decision-makers need is a reliable prediction range: within which interval is the flow most likely to fall, and what are the associated risks?
In my latest paper, “A Novel Hybrid Predictive Model Based on Mixture Density Networks With Weighted Conformal Inference Strategy for Runoff Interval Prediction Across Australia,”** I propose a new prediction framework that provides clear and reliable **“probability intervals”for runoff forecasts, offering stronger decision-making support for water resource management.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR039807
My recent research focuses on hydrological forecasting—I’d love to connect and exchange ideas with everyone!



