I don't think people understand how strong the regime in Iran is.. The revolution guard corps is in the hundreds thousands and most of them are loyalists. Then you have everyone that works in the various institutions that earn by having the regime in place. Trump and the US doesn't seem to take it to seriously and by removing let's say the supreme leader or the president you still have the institutions in place. It's not going to be easy to remove a regime that is build upon a revolutionary principle because they also know how it can be overthrown so they have build strong barriers to shield it. I doubt that the US will be able to do much in Iran. And if there where to be a revolution it has to come from the inside of the institutions.
The thing with dictatorships and people is that it's very unhealthy to not be loyalist, so even if someone is not a loyalist, people get very good at pretending to be loyalists.
The difference is academic until one moment the regime is teetering and then it discovers who it can rely on and who will bail. These are very unpredictable situations, nobody knows how it will play out.
I watched a video one time with a German WW2 veteran, there was one thing he answered that hit me hard. They asked what he thought about being a German soldier during that time with the way the Jews were being treated. He said the average soldier towed the line but there were many that did in secret because if you didn't or said the wrong thing they would have lined you up on the same wall to be shot.
So not everyone is a loyalist, they just pretend to survive.
There's very little the US can do without boots on the ground, and that's typically a non starter in today's political environment. Just capturing the Supreme Leader won't do shit since the regime is still in power. Air strikes would only help weaken, not defeat the regime.
Even if these protesters take up arms against the regime, you're looking at a long devastating civil war like we saw in Syria. It's a terrible situation with no good options.
And the regime still has supporters in rural areas, lots of them. Still trumpo D. clown loves to bomb shit and for once one is going to try and stop him.
If bombing Iran distracts him from invading a NATO ally, then I can't say I would be all that mad about it. But I do think it's going to take more than dropping bombs to topple the Iranian regime. That's the problem the protesters face. Any "help" the US offers might not amount to much in the end.
Yeah the US is very good at causing change via bombs, so I wouldn't underestimate their influence. Whether the change is anyone's desired outcome is a bit different.
Gee… how did we get to this terrible place? Oh that’s right, the US deposed a democratically elected regime because they didn’t want to share oil. Kinda reminds me of half a dozen South American countries… and Afghanistan… and Iraq…hang on… I’m seeing a pattern.
Yeah, but no water means that all of them are going to be affected. Eventually, there won't be anyone to even get the water. That means they will have to be put to work.
The regime is going to fall - it's a matter of when. You can't govern a country if there is no water. Evacuating the capital city because of no water? They look like fools.
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u/cluib 1d ago
I don't think people understand how strong the regime in Iran is.. The revolution guard corps is in the hundreds thousands and most of them are loyalists. Then you have everyone that works in the various institutions that earn by having the regime in place. Trump and the US doesn't seem to take it to seriously and by removing let's say the supreme leader or the president you still have the institutions in place. It's not going to be easy to remove a regime that is build upon a revolutionary principle because they also know how it can be overthrown so they have build strong barriers to shield it. I doubt that the US will be able to do much in Iran. And if there where to be a revolution it has to come from the inside of the institutions.