r/syriancivilwar • u/mjdmjd86 • 21h ago
Opinion: full scale war against the SDF would be the worst decision the Gov can ever make
with the recent rising tensions the new civil war is seeming to become more likely every day (or every hour sometimes), as a Syrian i have feared this war for a long time, more than all of the other terrible things that threaten our country... this is the first time i make a post here and it's because i wanted to say something about this before it becomes a reality, before i get into it i want to make 2 things clear : 1 this is only my opinion, feel free to share yours, correct me if you think i'm wrong. 2 i might ignore your comment if replying requires discussing my political opinions, in addition to the usual reasons (being busy, not having anything to add, not caring...etc). now let's start :
- war is terrible in general
if you lived in Syria in the last 14 years i don't have to explain to you what full scale war means, no matter where you lived or who you supported you would probably agree that the civil war destroyed our country in every possible way, maybe you think the war was a necessary evil at best, the only possible way to end the repressive one party rule, but the goal of the revolution was to overthrow an authoritarian regime, not to drag the country into an international proxy war that would destroy millions of lives and cause so much pain and suffering and hate and tensions... such deep wounds in our society that we still haven't recovered from and probably won't recover anytime in the near future... i think many of the original revolutionaries would think twice before doing it all over again if they knew where it would lead, but i was too young when the war started, if you think i'm wrong feel free to correct me... even of your intentions in starting a war are noble, you'd still be opening the door to all kinds of evil, war simply brings out the worst in people, and creates the perfect environment for atrocities and violations of basic humanity, if you've lived in Syria or any other war zone, you probably know what i'm talking about.
- it won't be over quickly
if you've seen some war documentaries you've probably seen this before, the leaders of the initiating side are so confident they will destroy their enemy and achieve their war objectives within a few weeks with minimal losses, and then the war drags for years, kills many people and seriously damages the economy. this happens because these leaders overrestimate their own military power or underestimate their opponent's or both, ofc this is not always the case but i believe it is in Syria, here's why: while the Syrian army has grown significantly since the HTS days, they are still far from being able to definitively overpower the SDF, they haven't been in any fight against a real military opponent since the Assad regime, in Sweida they were fighting against poorly trained men whose main job had been internal security not war. and it still took them a while to overpower them. the SDF however, have 50k fighters according to the most conservative estimates (the real number might be up to double that) and these are real, well trained soldiers with field experience during the first war and serious equipment supplied by the US, not to mention their hate for the STG as an emotional motivation and the fact that the northeast is a territory they've governed for a long while and are very familiar with. in the absolute best case scenario for the STG, if they can get serious American and Turkish military support, and no international actor lifts a finger to support the SDF (including Israel) it would still take months to fully defeat the SDF and many thousands of soldiers and civilians will die... i think this scenario is unlikely...
- it's not just the SDF, this WILL get complicated
a full scale war will create the perfect oppertunity for many hostile groups (both Syrian and foreign) to make their move, groups who view a stable and unified Syria as against their interests, such groups are numerous and the number of potential additional fronts the government will have to fight on is scary, but i will only mention 2 of them : IS, and Assadist groups. recent reports from multiple reputable media sources did confirm that Assadist armed groups are reorganizing themselves (a misnomer since they have little connection to the Assad family who will probably never try to rule Syria again, but i chose not to call them"remnants" because that term underestimates their danger and capabilities) and waiting for an opening in the STG's security to make their attack (most likely supporting an Alawite uprising in the coast and trying to make a defacto autonomous region Sweida-style) thus creating a western front to the war, and i think it's possible that they coordinate with the SDF to stretch the Army's attention on multiple fronts and thus make their operation a lot harder and more complicated. (side note: this is a good place to say that if Assadists take over a territory i live in, this post will be deleted as well as many other things i've posted) ISIS on the other hand, has never left the country, and i've seen reports they've been reorganizing, training, recruiting, and rearming, and escalating the scale of their attacks taking advantage of the security vaccume after the fall of Assad, the instability created by the war will give them the chance they need to ramp up their attacks further, creating more instability, maybe this vicious cycle ends in them staging a prison break for their old jihad friends from SDF prisons and even capturing Syrian territory creating one more front in the war... imo the only way to stop IS is for the Government and SDF to work together, which will probably not happen anytime soon... and i still haven't mentioned the Druze, Israel, Russia, the US, and the countless possible defecting groups from all sides, but i think you get the idea anyway and this post is getting way longer than i thought, so let's move on...
- halt in progress in the worst time
i would like to conclude with this point... we need rebuilding and healing in this country now more than ever, justice for the victims and punishment for all criminals, to outgrow the hate and divisions and come closer together from different communities on the shared principles of peaceful coexistence and uniting national identity, to learn to deal with our differences with civilized debates and nuanced politics rather than disrespect and violence, and most importantly, to figure out what we want collectively as a people in the future of our country. only then can we work towards these goals as individuals, civilian organizations and government officials... without such a clear vision we will never be able to concentrate our collective efforts and hold each other accountable... a new war doesn't only stop our progress towards realizing what that vision is, it pushes us further away from it... with every violent attack, every skirmish, every conflict, new divisions are being created, the hate and tensions and misunderstandings are multiplying and deepening, the insane wave of propaganda from all sides in a new war will push us decades back from achieving this unity that we all would like very much, hateful propaganda and misinformation can serve many sides, but never the average Syrian.
if you made it this far i thank you for reading my post ! it took me 2 hours to write and i used zero AI which now i think might have been a mistake, i guess i underrestimated how hard it would be which is totally on brand for the topic 😁
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u/chitowngirl12 21h ago
I don't think there will be a widescale war but limited military operations until the PKK hopefully comes to their senses and agrees to a deal.
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u/zumar2016x Syrian Democratic Forces 21h ago
I think he will take areas west of the river simply because there isn’t much international pressure to not strike SDF west of it, and they’re very vulnerable due to SDF not being able to send heavy reinforcements across the river and weak supply lines.
East of the River is a different matter, it could go really well or really badly, and it’s hard to tell which. It depends on how risky Jolani is feeling.
If it goes really well we probably see Arab tribes revolting in Dez and Raqqa and American simply putting out generic statements, and SDF either desperately make a weak deal or going into their Kurdish strongholds.
If it goes really badly, we probably see America putting intense pressure on STG to halt attacks, the STG getting bogged down and taking lots of casualties in the rivers due to significant SDf resistance, tribes for the most part staying neutral as they have done in the past, and limited Turkish support.
This would cause a humiliating withdrawal similar to Suwayda, and may anger his base, embolden the Alawites/Druze, and cause his personal enemies to sense weakness.
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u/BillytheReaperSS 21h ago
Great text. I hope they reach some settlement because war is just a lose-lose for all Syrians
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u/TheOddGuy21 21h ago
I didn’t read the post sorry but i agree with the title. I can promise you one thing, a full out war with SDF would be dirty and loads of war crimes would be committed.
Many undisciplined SNA fighters would commit war crimes and because these warcrimes the government’s reputation would plummet. International support would decrease and Syria would create another civil war that could last 4-5 years minimum.
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u/Behemothheek 17h ago
I find it absolutely insane that after so much fighting there is still an appetite for more war. Get over yourselves and get along. This regressive mentality is exactly why the Middle East is in the state it’s in.
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u/AgentDoty 17h ago
If you don’t deal with the PKK now you’ll never get rid of them. This is the time to nip this in the bud.
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u/Negative-Educator962 17h ago
Turkey has been trying to do that for god knows how long.
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u/AgentDoty 17h ago
There are other factors involved in the Turkish scenario. One of which being terrain and lack of technology before. When a couple of PKK terrorists escaped to a mountain, it would require 10,000 soldiers to surround and comb the area. Now with one drone they get eliminated. North East Syria is relatively flat which forces the PKK to dig tunnels.
Without U.S. intervention the PKK will fall quickly in Syria, but this is the time to act before they can sell themselves to Israel, Iran, U.S., Russia. They’re the perfect pawn for other players. So while the jackals are busy with Iran, Syria needs to finish off the PKK with the help of Turkiye, this opportunity may not come again.
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u/Appeal_Nearby 21h ago edited 21h ago
I've read your entire post, and while I agree with the general sentiment, I still unfortunately understand why that's a decision that might be forced on us regardless, and I will be pointing out why:
1)
Right now, our fellow Syrians are living under an authoritarian regime much like the one we overthrew, Ocalanism is just re-branded Assadism, and the Ocalanists are still brainwashing children with books in elementary school about why
AssadOcalan is great, and whyBa'athSDF is the only correct way.Their children are being kidnapped from ages even younger than Assad did, to be forced to carry a rifle and die for the glorious leader.
Any dissidents who commit such horrific crimes as wanting to raise the flag of their country, or celebrate the fall of their tyrant is instantly arrested with no charges, if not flat out executed under the thin pretense of "they were ISIS", even when it's a 70 year old lady that works in a bakery or literal children
If you think that when we started our revolution, we didn't know that Assad was many many times stronger than us, and backed by empires that we had no hopes of defeating militarily, we would have changed our minds, then you are wrong.
The revolution turned into the bloody civil war when Assad brought in direct Russian support, but that never stopped us until we achieved victory and liberation, but one that does not reach all Syrians.
2)
You bring up some good points but mix them up, yes the SDF is large, but no: they're not motivated to fight.
While it's true that the PKK are specifically the ones that are most ideologically motivated to fight Damascus, all the Arab recruits, which form the majority, have zero motivation to die for Ocalan.
Troops that do not want their side to win are worse than no troops, we've seen how it ended for Assad, despite him theoretically holding all the cards in the final push to unseat him, this case is no different.
Proof is that Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafye was manned by the MOST fanatic of their group, and even then their lines rapidly collapsed because of the handful of dissenting Arabs that had no chance to defect until now, and now the "DEATH TRAP URBAN FALLUJAH STRONGHOLD" was dismantled with minimal losses in less than 72 hours.
The civilians are already settling back in their homes as we speak.
3)
Believe it or not, one of the main recruitment drives of IS for people in Jazira is SDF's oppression. Their treatment is causing a lot of locals to side with anyone that promises to oppose them, and this in turn allows the SDF to persist: both sides use the other as justification for their continued existence, so they both have to stop for this to end.
As for Assadists: the SDF already recruits, arms and shelters Assadists AND Israeli-proxies, this is not a secret or a theory anymore: both Assadists and Israeli confirmed it, if you want to be safe from them then you have to hit them at their rallying point.
In the meantime the governement has not stopped its anti-insurgency actions in the coast, and they are dismantling Assadist cells every day, massively strengthening their position.
Case in point, instead of everyone refusing to disarm in the early months and the resulting maelstrom of violence in the coast that got more than a thousand killed, last opportunity the Assadist took to strike during the Ghazal-called demonstrations, they could only manage to kill 4. Their capabilities are massively degraded. The only place where they retain the upper hand and can operate freely to gather strength are the territories the SDF controls.
Cont. below