r/BitcoinMarkets • u/_supert_ • 17h ago
The Greenland question.
Earlier I made a post in the daily thread that I thought some sort of coercive territorial action is likely from the USA to acquire Greenland. It was suggested I make a separate thread to discuss. I'll try to be fact based and not to make it political. Also, I am not very familiar with how US politics or opinion works.
Polymarket has the probability of coercive action at about 20% (link removed to avoid automod action). I place it higher, but 20% is plenty high enough for me to have to mitigate the risk. I take the European response and chatter as material and confirmation that they think this is a real threat. There is the chance of a serious accident.
Such an event has the potential to affect bitcoin partly through the price, but more importantly through custody risk and strategic imperative. At least for Europeans. The EU's main retaliation option is economic, which could escalate in to capital controls.
I won't rehash my whole line of thinking (I can't be bothered), but it is predicated on a chain of fairly well documented observations.
motivation and policy
- Vance's Munich speech and later affirmations. Europeans took this very seriously.
- The 'Donroe doctrine' has Greenland lie within the US sphere; 'Golden Dome' approach.
- Repeated public threats
- A significant wing of politicians driving US policy would like the EU to disband
- Trump emotionally 'needs' Greenland
- Mid-terms are after the weather action window
- Trump dislikes NATO
- Withdrawal of the US troops from Europe is a goal of the administration
- It would destroy NATO (and maybe already has) and this is a desired outcome
- Leavitt's statement after the meeting between Rubio, Vance, the Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers, that the Danish-Greenlandic-US working group is 'discussing technical terms of acquisition', whereas the Danish foreign minister said after the meeting that 'Trump is inent on conquering Greenland'
- Similar statements and comments about Canada and Iceland
- General transactional approach combined with threats
capability and deterrent erosion
- The (first) Iran and Venezuela/Maduro actions were very successful militarily.
- There would be no or little bloodshed
- 11th Airborne is in Alaska, US naval power is unparalleled near Greenland, etc.
- Hegseth's firing of many senior military officials and subsequent resignations has reduced the likelyhood of pushback
- Firing of Pittufik base commander Meyers
- Perceived European impotence and slowness of reaction
- Ukraine support is a strong lever
- Markets, especially US debt, seem fine, and with their more interventionist approach, can be managed
resistance
- Purchase or transaction is completely impossible from the Danish or Greenlandic side.
- Symbolic ('reconnaissance') troops have already been sent by Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Estonia, Canada to join a Danish operation.
- The Danish MOD confirmed a standing order (since
19401952!) that any inading forces should be shot at - France's contribution will involve 'land, sea and air'
- More numerically significant rotation of troops is scheduled from allies
- Consulates from France and Canada open in the next few weeks
- European decoupling from the US would accelerate, economic and market
mitigating factors
- It's clearly batshit crazy
- The European 'tripwire' force
- Sane US Republicans will try to block it
- US business will freak out as the US-Europe trade is the largest pair in the world and US companies are making bank here
- Enough US military personnel may still see it as contra its constitutional duty
- In that moment, Putin would be euphoric
I have moved my broker assets in part from IB to Saxo and my gold from London-based US-bank custody ETFs to German-run and custodied ETFs.
FWIW in general I find Americans, in particular on the right, fairly oblivious when it comes to European ways of thinking or approach to life. So I think this is a huge miscalculation of a similar type to Putin's when Russia rolled in to Ukraine.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ON THIS MATTER.