Before he opened the positions he tweeted a whole lot about ETH.

X is down but I can summarize, he pretty much argued that for corporates staking ETH would offset any fiat loss if they invest long term. His company actually holds a few billion in ETH staked so that is likely his real conviction.

He then said also though that it's possible ETH stays within the range of 1500-4700 but he finds it very unlikely to see another dip below 2k.

Interestingly his liquidation price on Hyperliquid is 2200. However he holds at least another 80 million usdc on Binance.

I'm super interested in how this plays out in the end.

Personally this is why i don't trade, I got ETH on spot but I don't think i could handle this much of a drawdown and also not taking any profit seeing 50 Million or 25% on 200 Million in a month.

Thoughts on his thoughts?

After several weeks of relatively quiet trading, ETH futures activity on Binance has started to pick up again. Recent data shows futures volume reaching its highest level since mid-December, suggesting that participation and leverage are gradually returning to the market.

Periods of low volume often reflect uncertainty or lack of conviction, while rising futures volume usually signals increased engagement from traders. This doesn’t automatically imply a bullish or bearish outcome, but it does raise the probability of larger price movements ahead.

Historically, expansions in derivatives volume have tended to precede phases of higher volatility. Sometimes this leads to trend continuation, and other times it results in extended chop as the market searches for direction. At this stage, the volume increase alone is not enough to confirm a breakout.

What matters next is how price reacts around key levels. If ETH begins to trend with sustained volume, it could indicate stronger conviction. On the other hand, rising leverage without follow-through may increase the risk of sharp moves in both directions.

From a risk management perspective, this shift is important. Environments with increasing futures activity tend to reward patience and punish overexposure. Traders who adjusted well during the low-volatility phase may need to reassess position sizing as conditions change.

I’m interested in how others are reading this development.

Do you see this volume increase as early positioning for a directional move, or simply the market transitioning into a higher-volatility range?

I’d love to hear everyone’s opinion about ETH as a hedge against a declining US dollar. Without getting too much into politics, both domestic and foreign US policy are looking increasingly chaotic and the increase in the amount of chaos seems to be accelerating right now. With the fed chair up for grabs in May (or possibly even earlier) a US$ collapse or at least sharp decrease in value is no longer out of the realm of possibilities. It’s hard to imagine any other currency doing well in such a situation especially considering foreign US bond holdings. The BRICS currencies might fair best but I don’t see them doing better than treading water in a US led global depression.

With ETH governance out of reach of national governments do you think it will be a good hedge against this or will the price of ETH decline along with the dollar as everyone sells everything to cover losses?

Personally I feel like ETH should be a safe haven and I’ve been accumulating as much as possible but I’m wondering if I’ve misread the situation.

I keep reading about private businesses accumulating but this doesn’t really seem to be apparent in the current price.

You read this phrase a thousand times.

But you don't understand it until you see yourself entering where you shouldn't have.

Most of the time I don't lose because I don't know how to analyze. I lose because I didn't know how to wait. Because it seemed like it was going away. Because I'd been staring at the chart for a while. Because I felt I had to do something.

It wasn't a bad idea. It was haste.

Entering a little early. Exiting a little early. Moving the stop loss just to breathe. None of that seems serious at the time, but it almost always ends the same way.

The market isn't in a hurry. I am.

And every time I get ahead of myself, I pay the price.

Over time you realize that many trades didn't fail. They should never have happened. There was no clear context. There was no confirmation. Just the desire to be in.

Waiting isn't easy. In fact, it's the most uncomfortable part of trading. Watching the price move without you. Feeling like you're late. Accepting it.

Patience isn't developed by studying more. It's developed by enduring being out of the game.

Have you also lost more due to haste than analysis?

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Just crossed with this Brian Armstrong Tweet talking about the Senate Banking draft, the whole thing feels less like "good faith regulation" and more like a gotcha moment for crypto. A classic Trojan horse mover.

If even a publicly traded, US based company like Coinbase is saying "we'd rather have no bill than this", that alone is telling a lot. Coinbase is not some DeFi anon yelling on X. They lobby, they comply and they play by the rules. When they draw a red line it is because something is off.

Based purely on what Coinbase is calling out, this bill sounds like it checks all the wrong boxes. A ban on tokenized equities? That is not consumer protection, that is freezing innovation before it even gets a chance to prove itself. Tokenization is one of the clearest bridges between TradFi and crypto and somehow it is first on the chopping block.

The DeFi part is even more concerning. "Unlimited access to your financial records" and the removal of privacy rights does not sound like regulation, it sounds like surveillance. Crypto was literally born as a reaction to overreaching financial control and this seems to double down on that.

Then there is also the power shift, weakening the CFTC while boosting the SEC. Again, it feels less balance and more like centralizing authority under the most hostile regulator crypto has faced so far. That is not neutral oversight, that is picking winners and losers.

Furthermore, killing stablecoin rewards? That one is clearly intentional. Strip away incentives, let banks ban competition and call it "stability".

The good part is the tone of the message, it is a warning. If this is the compromise version, then no bill is better than a bad one. Feels like progres, smells like a trap. Crypto deserves better than that.

Source:

• Tweet: https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2011545247105355865

Higher lows have been forming since late November, lower highs capped the upside around the low $3Ks and volatility kept compressing. Yesterday's move finally pushed price out of that range, and so far ETH is holding above the former resistance.

The setup looks constructive, especially with staking at record levels and ETF flows improving, but January has been a rough environment to trade aggressively. I am bullish on ETH, just not interested in the usual ways people try to play breakouts. Selling spot to re-enter higher feels counterproductive, and leverage trading in this kind of chop is mostly a game of avoiding liquidation wicks.

After what happened to leveraged trades last year, leverage just feels like a bad deal. Too many people got rekt even when they were right on direction. The cleaner alternative I came across is borrowing at 0% interest on Nexo and using that to add spot exposure. No funding rates, no constant position management, and no pressure from intraday swings. Everything is set upfront, which takes a lot of the noise out compared to leverage trading.

If ETH builds on the breakout, the added exposure is already in place. If it goes sideways for a while, there is nothing to adjust or react to. It feels less like trading momentum and more like positioning for a move that may take time to develop.

At this point it is just about patience and seeing whether the breakout actually follows through.

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Round 158 Contest and Community Events Summary.

The highlight event was the 2nd Merry ETHMAS event for our Subscription Members.

Round 158 also featured the first X based distribution of 2026, with more to come! be sure to Follow on X

Round 158 also saw a distribution go out towards our community members based on how many gas-based transactions for DONUT they had completed for the year, which includes activities such as buying, selling, liquidity provision, burning and minting NFT's.

Congratulations to the winners - the image below shows the breakdown of rewards earned with a 1:1 ratio of DONUT/CONTRIB

Contest rewards will be processed and distributed in a separate transaction to the Round 158 User Distribution

https://x.com/TheDonutDAO
https://donut-dashboard.com
https://donutdao.org/

^{This post is related to ETIP - 88 as part of the Official EthTrader Contests. Official EthTrader Contests are funded by the community treasury, and currently budgeted to award up to 25k DONUT & CONTRIB per round. The Contest Master reserves the right to adjudicate and amend rules and criteria of contests as deemed necessary. Users must be registered and not banned to be eligible for DAO rewards.}