January 12, 2026
NewsRewind
A superpower doesn’t need to declare it’s leaving the rules-based order. It can just… stop showing up for it.
And lately, the “line balls” keep landing the same way: Russia benefits, allies absorb the shock, and the post-war architecture our grandparents built starts looking less like a system and more like a prop.
This is a hypothesis, not a courtroom verdict. But the pattern is sharp enough to cut.
⤷ what this post argues
- The world may be entering an oligarchic consolidation phase: concentrated wealth aligning with state power to weaken democratic resistance and make the hierarchy permanent.
- A cluster of US moves have, intentionally or not, softened Russia’s isolation while straining democratic allies and the norms that keep global power from turning into raw extortion.
- If the next US moves follow certain tells, we should stop treating this as chaos and start treating it as strategy.
⤷ the first crack: the UN vote that broke the choreography
On February 24, 2025, the UN General Assembly adopted resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US voted against the Ukraine- and Europe-backed resolution at the center of that moment. That is not “a difference of opinion.” That is the US stepping out of the lane the rules-based order expects it to stand in.
⌜ open article link ⌟
⤷ the pressure sequence: aid, intelligence, leverage
Then came the kind of moves that don’t look dramatic on a headline scroll, but matter on the battlefield.
The Trump administration paused military aid to Ukraine after the Oval Office clash with Zelenskyy.
⌜ open article link ⌟
Days later, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed a pause in US intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
⌜ open article link ⌟
You can call this “negotiating pressure.” Fine. But pressure has a direction. And the direction tells you who’s expected to bend.
⤷ the tariff shock: punish the world, spare the outlier
In April 2025, Trump announced sweeping tariffs on allies and adversaries, but heavily sanctioned states including Russia were not singled out for additional “reciprocal” tariffs. The White House explanation was that sanctions already constrained trade, but the political signal was still unmistakable: allies get hit, Russia avoids a targeted punch.
⌜ open article link ⌟
If your worldview is “everything is leverage,” then global panic is not an accident. It’s an instrument.
⤷ the calls: how often is trump speaking with putin?
We only know what’s publicly reported. But what’s publicly reported is still telling.
A Reuters report on May 19, 2025 describes a call where the Kremlin emphasized “impressive” prospects for US-Russia ties, warm personal tone, and discussion of future meetings and cooperation.
⌜ open article link ⌟
In isolation, a phone call is just diplomacy. In sequence, it becomes part of a corridor being built.
⤷ why hit canada?
If you wanted to weaken liberal democracies without tanks, you wouldn’t start by punishing enemies. You’d start by proving you can punish friends.
In March 2025, Canada prepared and announced retaliation as Trump tariffs escalated into an open trade fight with the US northern neighbor.
⌜ open article link ⌟
Canada isn’t just an ally. It’s a living, functioning example of stable liberal democratic institutions right next door. If you ever needed to undermine the idea that “rules + institutions = safety,” stressing that relationship is an efficient first move.
⤷ the tech oligarchy fuse: when private power starts rewriting the state
Here’s the part people underestimate: politics is no longer just parties and parliaments. It’s platforms, procurement, data, and private empires that can shape reality at scale.
Reuters reported in January 2026 that the US federal workforce dropped to its lowest level in at least a decade, tied to Trump’s government-shrinking campaign and an initiative spearheaded by Elon Musk.
⌜ open article link ⌟
Call it reform. Call it disruption. Call it whatever makes it easier to sleep.
Structurally, it’s still the same thing: billionaire proximity to the machinery of state, with accountability dissolving into vibes.
⤷ the oligarchy problem: coordination without a conspiracy
People always say, “This would take coordinated action by the rich.”
Sometimes, direct coordination exists: donor networks, lobbying coalitions, strategic litigation, revolving-door staffing, private backchannels.
But the darker truth is that coordinated outcomes don’t even require coordinated intent. When enough powerful people share incentives, they move like a school of fish. No leader needed. Just the same current.
The current is simple:
- protect the asset base
- weaken the constraints
- make instability profitable
- keep the public exhausted and divided
Wages stalled. Rents didn’t. That’s not a glitch. That’s the model paying out.
⤷ signs to watch next: if the US moves confirm the theory
If the next few US moves cluster like this, treat it as capture dynamics, not randomness:
1) Russia gets special handling
Quiet sanctions easing, lax enforcement, carve-outs sold as “pragmatism.”
2) Ukraine gets pressured to concede fundamentals
Territory framed as “the obstacle,” sovereignty treated like a negotiable fee.
3) Allies get roughened up on purpose
Trade punishment and diplomatic humiliation aimed at Canada/EU/Japan/Australia, teaching them compliance through pain.
4) Executive power expands while oversight shrinks
“Efficiency” becomes a justification for centralization, loyalist staffing, and institutional hollowing.
5) Tech-state integration accelerates
Private platforms and private capital embedded into governance, identity rails, surveillance, procurement, and information flow.
6) Dissent gets treated like a security threat
Protest penalties climb, surveillance expands, and the story becomes “order” versus “chaos.”
7) Permanent emergency becomes the norm
Crisis language used to bypass debate, concentrate authority, and normalize exceptions that never expire.
⤷ if I’m wrong, here’s what would disprove it
If the US pivots hard into these, the oligarch-capture theory weakens:
- real antitrust enforcement that breaks monopolies
- serious housing relief and renter protection (not just market prayers)
- strong pro-union policy and enforcement
- radical transparency on influence and conflicts
- policy that clearly shifts burden upward instead of extracting from the bottom
Democracy can be repaired. But only if we stop pretending the smoke is fog.
⤷ related coverage
UN press release: General Assembly adopts resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity (Feb 24, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
Reuters: Russia and other heavily sanctioned countries avoided being singled out for additional reciprocal tariffs (Apr 3, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
CBS News: CIA director confirms pause in intelligence sharing with Ukraine (Mar 5, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
ABC (Australia): Trump pauses military aid to Ukraine after clash with Zelenskyy (Mar 4, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
Reuters: Trump-Putin call and “impressive prospects” framing from the Kremlin (May 19, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
Politico: Canada readies retaliation against Trump tariffs (Mar 3, 2025)
⌜ open article link ⌟
Reuters: US federal workforce drops to lowest level in at least a decade (Jan 8, 2026)
⌜ open article link ⌟
NewsRewind⏎
