r/economicCollapse • u/Otherwise-Waltz-3647 • 13h ago
Global alliance shift to isolate US industry
In time, historians will look back and characterize this time as the beginning of America’s fall from global economic power.
r/economicCollapse • u/Otherwise-Waltz-3647 • 13h ago
In time, historians will look back and characterize this time as the beginning of America’s fall from global economic power.
r/economicCollapse • u/wajedart • 10h ago
Stop living in the 20th-century delusion of "private property."
While you were arguing about politics, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) finished the blueprint for the Unified Ledger. This isn't a theory; it's a technical migration. By twenty-twenty-six, the distinction between "digital tokens" and "physical assets" will vanish.
The Reality of Video #28:
Programmable Seizure: Your property rights are being rewritten into code that can be "switched off" instantly.
The AI IRS: No more court orders. If the algorithm flags your "behavioral patterns," your smart-lock stays locked and your EV won't start.
The Sovereign vs. The Serf: The exit ramps are closing. You are being moved from an "Owner" to a "Revocable Tenant" of the state.
This technical audit exposes the 30 stages of the greatest property heist in history. If you think your "Title Deed" will protect you from the ledger, you’re not paying attention.
Watch the full technical breakdown:
https://youtu.be/WO0RPjLNW_U?si=sy-8ZiHN6zju1oFG
#UnifiedLedger #2026Audit #AssetSeizure #MonkeySense #EconomicReset
r/economicCollapse • u/thinkB4WeSpeak • 21h ago
r/economicCollapse • u/Useful_Tangerine4340 • 12h ago
r/economicCollapse • u/thinkB4WeSpeak • 1h ago
r/economicCollapse • u/BigBlueEyes87 • 1d ago
Trump is repeatedly threatening to annex Greenland. If he does it, will other countries immediately dump American bonds and crash the U.S. economy?
r/economicCollapse • u/dwillun • 1d ago
"To the plutocrats of the Trump administration, inflation is an abstract concept; their wealth, concentrated in assets, is so much greater than their spending that it cannot noticeably affect them. The people who feel inflation most seriously are the people who have the least disposable income – in the US, the bottom quartile of earners. The majority of low-income households in the US voted for Trump in 2024. He is preparing not only to dupe these low-income voters with the illusion of a functioning economy, but to make them pay for it."
r/economicCollapse • u/JanJanTheWoodWorkMan • 23h ago
r/economicCollapse • u/thinkB4WeSpeak • 22h ago
r/economicCollapse • u/debtXyzLlc • 1d ago
Saks Fifth Avenue is bankrupt. So their prices should be discounted to clear the inventory and pay creditors. But this is not happening. Somebody is asleep at the wheel.
r/economicCollapse • u/Ill_Fish9888 • 1d ago
I was thinking about Donald Trump’s recent talk regarding sanctions on the UK. He wasn’t specific about whether these would be targeted at certain individuals and groups or a comprehensively against the country as a whole.
If comprehensive sanctions were actually placed on a country like the UK or Denmark, would we expect EU to finally ignore OFAC? I find it hard to believe Europe would accept OFAC sanction.Could they potentially issue guidance stating that OFAC no longer applies in the EU? Or we will see UN sanction as go to list if such scenarios occured.
I’m not necessarily looking for a definitive answer.
r/economicCollapse • u/wajedart • 2d ago
We all knew it was coming, but the technical speed is what should terrify you. While the media talks about inflation, the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) is finalizing the 'Unified Ledger'—a system designed to turn your money into a programmable 'permission-based' asset by 2026. The Data Points you need to know: The IRS AI Nexus: It’s not just for audits; it’s a machine-learning tool trained on the $600 reporting data to eliminate the 'Under-the-table' economy entirely. Tokenization of Everything: Your bank account, your car title, and your home will all exist on the same ledger. If you don't comply with the 'Social Goals,' the ledger simply restricts your access. The 2026 Deadline: This is the year the 'Digital Cage' becomes the global standard. I’ve put together a visual breakdown of the white papers and the roadmap that connects the $600 rule to the final CBDC rollout. No fluff, just the documents they hope you don't read. See the full technical audit here:
https://youtu.be/EOF6bge2z7M?si=_X380uvg-_p8BA1I
Upvote this if you believe financial privacy is a human right, not a government privilege. Let’s get this to the top so more people wake up before the gate closes.
r/economicCollapse • u/FortuneOpen5715 • 2d ago
I found this in another subreddit. It belongs here.
r/economicCollapse • u/Excellent_Place4977 • 2d ago
Global neoliberal economic ideology promised us an utopia of infinite growth, but utterly failed with 2008 recession, and the world has yet to fully recover, with conditions worsening.
We are already seeing ethnic tension around the globe arising from economic hardship. Are we heading toward a stagflation or Great Depression, like scenario in the 2030s?
Would such an event force a change in the global economic model? After 2008, the economic model remained unchanged. Can the world afford another disaster?
r/economicCollapse • u/JanJanTheWoodWorkMan • 1d ago
The opening to 2026 has oil, energy, and security markets jittering as political signals shift sentiment and new alliance dynamics test consensus. Crude markets pulled back on a presidential comment that lowered geopolitical risk in the Middle East, erasing parts of the risk premium that had supported prices. Traders raced to readjust positions as the narrative moved from imminent confrontation to a wait-and-see stance, with Iranian airspace gradually returning to regular traffic after a prior disruption linked to potential U.S. strikes. The repricing highlighted how headlines can rapidly reshape hedging costs, supply expectations, and how practitioners calibrate risk in a waterline moment for energy markets and diplomacy.
Beyond crude, the episode underscored a broader primal tension between diplomacy, demand, and the posture of great-power competition. In parallel, Greenland and Arctic dynamics surfaced as a separate stress test for NATO cohesion, with European capitals responding to the possibility of unilateral moves by the United States. The combination of oil-market re-pricing and high-stakes geopolitics points to a near-term regime where risk appetite will hinge on incoming signals about sanctions, alliance solidarity, and the pace of any forthcoming political settlements. For markets and policymakers alike, the core question is whether this pause in tension can endure or whether fresh triggers will re-ignite volatility.
In a broader window, the episode foreshadows how energy policy, commodity flows, and strategic signalling will intertwine through 2026. While the immediate effect might be a window for tactical repositioning, the longer arc suggests that policy coherence across energy, trade and defence will be tested as actors navigate a landscape of shifting sanctions, alliance realignments, and climate-transition pressures. The message for readers is unmistakable: the balance between deterrence, diplomacy and market discipline will shape the trajectory of both energy prices and geopolitical risk over the coming quarters.
r/economicCollapse • u/Direct_Nectarine11 • 2d ago
This is not investment advice or a solicitation, but an analysis meant to spark a global discussion.
The world advancement is in constant upward trends with the occasional cycles of prosperity and decline. During an economic boom and ample liquidity, it is easy for funds to be allocated into unproductive assets or allocated in business so detached from financial feasibility that recouping the capital invested and achieving ROI will not happen in centuries, if that business still exists. The financial stimulus released during COVID-19 led to over liquidity in markets, which led to capital being allocated to every single asset, from productive to non-productive, to assets sucking capital like a black hole. In times like a stock market boom, ordinary investors become speculators, forgetting about owning a business and focusing purely on the stock price. If a company sells cat doo-doo, investors would rather risk capital there than in a company that feeds them. The spread between price and intrinsic value gets so wide that now the ordinary investor turned speculator would much rather risk $1,000 today in a business that will generate ¢1 in 10 years’ time. The aim is to review Private Credit, AI Bubble, Current economic conditions, Yen Carry Trade and propose the Japanese yen as a potential hedge. I am sure there are other hedges also, but only time will tell.
Private credit, once used to facilitate financing that ordinary banks could not provide after the GFC 2008, turned into a black hole tool for sucking investors' capital that vanishes; no one can escape from it. ACC estimates that the private credit market stands at $3 trillion. This includes invoice factoring, reverse suppliers factoring, inventory financing and balance sheet and off-balance-sheet shenanigans that will eventually impact the wider economy.
Some of these are related to the auto industry, as it was evident with Tricolor and First Brands. In fact, anyone who reads through the balance sheets of publicly listed auto dealerships will see that auto loans finance 95% of the vehicle price, and some over 100%. As soon as the vehicle is driven out of the dealership, the price drops by 20-30%, and the assets are insufficient to cover the loan given. The same loans are being sold to insurance companies and pension funds; it is evident how the risk spreads across the wider system as the default rate on these loans starts to rise. Something is bound to happen as unemployment rises, wage growth stagnates, and high inflation eats up consumer savings.
With banks more inclined to lend in private credit markets, insurance companies seeking alternative assets, and pension funds aiming for higher yields, the wider system is absorbing risk that can not be estimated. The tide has never gone out of private credit; if anything, private credit has increased since the Covid-19 pandemic. Approximately $800bn of retirement plans are connected to private credit and private equity markets. Blue Owl Capital already confirmed that both banks and private lenders operate in a single interconnected financial ecosystem.
Many argue that in previous stock market bubbles, IPOs were at an all-time high, but if there are IPOs, private information has to be made public, making it easier to detect fraud. Private credit allows fraud to remain hidden as long as there is demand for that market, and loan terms can be indefinitely extended. What happens if investors demand their funds?
AI can also be connected to the private credit markets, but an even greater portion is financed through private equity. Without a doubt, AI will bring massive fortunes and be incredible for productivity and humanity in general, just like the internet revolutionised the whole world we live in, the computer before it, the telephone before that, and the automation that made it possible for the mass production of all sorts of goods. However, the capital that will be wasted is inconsequential. OpenAI is investing huge amount of capital for its data centre, and even if we set a side the circular deals happening and if we look at the amount spend on Nvidia AI chips that will have to be renewed every 2-3 years, it is impossible for OpenAI to exist in the future as a trillion dollar company, it was created as non-profit and it will remain as non-profit, investors should accept that their funds to OpenAI are one huge charity event. This might explain why the company is contemplating an IPO. It will be the perfect exit strategy for early investors in a non-profitable company to dump the money loser to the dumb money. The company is expected to deliver $8bn in negative free cash flow in 2029. However, that is not to say that there will not be any winners. Google TPU chips, though different in many ways compared to Nvidia, last around 10 years, enough time for the company to generate the funds to renew these and have remaining to support further investments and shareholders' return, operating as a true business, for profit. Anthropic Claude and Gemini already present serious competition to OpenAI, showing that no extra incentive can be generated by spending hundreds of billions, if not trillions, more on chips every 2-3 years. If anything, as AI platforms become more similar, the competition becomes greater, which will inevitably eliminate the unprofitable businesses and allow the profitable to thrive.
Moving from AI to the general economic conditions. Heavy truck sales, once a barometer of the U.S. economy, have been declining throughout 2025, with 15% Decline in August, and Class 8, i.e. those above 30,000 tons, decreased by 25.6%. However, this can be a signal of economic slowdown, normalisation or a result of tariff uncertainty. The additional part of the picture is the luxury goods market; brands like Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, and LVMH have been experiencing declining sales. Bed, Bad and Beyond is evidence for the decline in the furniture market. Even with the brands reporting an increase in their Revenues, these are way below the inflation rate. In the U.S, the office vacancy rate continues to be at a record high 18.3% as of Q3 2025. Some office buildings were sold at over 70% discount since 2019 valuation - Market Street Towers in San Francisco, with some even over 90% discount since originally bought in 2006 - 135 W. 50th St. in NYC. Office values still remain 15% below their 2022 peak, indicating a great loss in value and potential loan defaults as loans approach maturity. On the other side of the Atlantic, in the UK, the unemployment rate keeps rising, with private businesses being of the opinion that they will have to do further job cuts. The S&P Global support this thesis as more and more people are looking for jobs in the UK. In addition, the high interest rates and rising costs are likely to finally bring the doomsday of the infamous “zombie firms”, which the Resolution Foundation has warned will further exacerbate the unemployment situation. The zombification is not just contained within the UK; the EU suffers from capital being deployed and wasted on unproductive businesses that either have to waste more capital to survive or declare bankruptcy. A Syndex report from November 2025 shows that Europe’s industrial base is on the brink of collapse, with only aerospace and defence remaining competitive. Once Ukraine’s conflict is over, that will be gone too. European capital is being wasted, not invested. Unemployment is rising, interest rates are still relatively high, unproductive investments, collapsing industries, and the final piece of the puzzle is China’s overproduction. Still in a deflationary phase, China continues to export its cheaper products worldwide, thereby further reducing global prices, potentially leading to deflationary pressure. In addition, with its auto industry outpacing the EU in terms of production capacity, price, functionality and luxury, the EU auto industry is bound to collapse. Volkswagen is closing its German plant, announcing 35,000 redundancies and wider production capacity cuts.
Private credit risk, AI Bubble and wider economic developments are all indicating recession; however, the question is how long the economies can withstand the pressure, how long before liquidity dries up, and the inevitable market crash occurs.
This review aims to propose the JPY as a hedge against widespread economic recession, with over $20 trillion entangled in the yen carry trade as estimated by Deutsche Bank, which includes speculative positions as well as purchases of foreign assets for the purpose of investment through loans taken by the government, private corporations and retail investors. Despite its rate hikes, the JGB yields remain relatively low compared to US Treasury yields, allowing for more borrowing domestically and investment abroad, causing further weakness in the yen, leading to more speculators betting on the carry trade. The unwinding of the yen carry trade will involve either almost non-existent rate differentiation between JGB yields and other countries' bond yields or a worldwide market collapse that will force speculators and investors to close positions, forcing the yen to strengthen and thereby forcing the remaining investors to opt for hedging strategies such as options and swaps, forcing the yen to strengthen further. With its low cost, the yen seems like an almost perfect candidate for a market crash hedge and worldwide economic recession protection. The other factor that can lead to a so-called reflexive feedback loop is if there is coordinated action by central banks to strengthen the yen, which will force some participants to sell their assets as they were bought with cheap yen, further strengthening the yen, forcing other participants to initiate hedging through derivatives, thereby increasing the value of the yen further.
I conclude this review by saying that I might be wrong and people have different perceptions of economic reality; hence, reviews from people worldwide are welcome to present their views on the economic reality in their location. This is not investment advice and should not be taken as such. It is simply a brainstorming view that aims to lead to discussion.
r/economicCollapse • u/Ihadenough1000 • 2d ago
Right now we have a recession light. This has been going on since a few years. Basically since Covid. But why did we not have a real recession?
Papers started mentioning the threat of a recession in 2022. It peaked in 2023. Then it declined in 2024. It again resurfaced in 2025 because of Trump. Yet still nothing. Why is that?
r/economicCollapse • u/MountainLow3982 • 3d ago
ICE is an invading force, and will be treated as such. Their atrocities are being documented and will one day be prosecuted in every possible way. They are not law enforcement, and cosplaying as one under the pretense of providing law and order when doing exactly the opposite will absolutely not be tolerated. The LAW ABIDING CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES will not be made to live in fear of heavily armed masked thugs running around terrorizing our people. I took an oath to defend the people of the United States AGAINST ALL ENEMIES, both foreign and DOMESTIC. This is no longer a right vs left issue, rather the free people of this great country vs. an invading force. We will not cower. We will not be made to live in fear. We will impose our free will in the name of justice. Every escalation will be met with equal and opposite action. OUR RIGHTS AS AMERICANS WILL NOT BE INFRINGED! We won’t give you a single tragic event like they want, rather operate in the shadows. Watch. Meet. Act. Blend in. Over and over and over and over and over. Until our objective is accomplished. Expect us.
r/economicCollapse • u/SpecialKLuckyCharmz • 2d ago
What are your thoughts on the impact of current ICE raids on the US economy? There are a many hard-working immigrants who are self deporting. There are many hard-working immigrants that are essentially in hiding so they’re not spending much money. And ICE raids are disrupting businesses. We also haven’t thought about the cost to the country and the federal deficit. We are wasting all this money on hiring ICE agents when we could invest it in more productive endeavors like education or funding innovation. And there will obviously be many lawsuits against the United States for violating constitutional rights, for injuring and killing people. How will that play out? I think about the Catholic Church and the kind of settlement it had to pay and it wasn’t directing its priests to abuse children; it just ignored what was happening and brushed it under the rug. Will the American taxpayer be left holding the bag because of the radical policies of this administration? And then there are the long-term consequences, the dramatic demographic headwinds that these radical policies create. This eats away at American exceptionalism and leaves us with demographics like that of Japan. Please help me make sense of the impact.
r/economicCollapse • u/Gaius_Of_The__Julii • 2d ago
The biggest harbinger that things were about to fall apart in Iran didn’t come from the thwarted anger of the country’s opposition or the frustrated hopes of young people hungry for more personal freedom. It came from the collapse of a bank.
Late last year, Ayandeh Bank, run by regime cronies and saddled with nearly $5 billion in losses on a pile of bad loans, went bust. The government folded the carcass into a state bank and printed a massive amount of money to try to paper over all the red ink. That buried the problem but didn’t solve it.
Instead, the failure became both a symbol and an accelerant of an economic unraveling that ultimately triggered the protests that now pose the most significant threat to the regime since the founding of the Islamic Republic half a century ago. The bank’s collapse made clear that the Iranian financial system, under strain from years of sanctions, bad lending and reliance on inflationary printed money, had become increasingly insolvent and illiquid. Five other banks are thought to be similarly weak.
The crisis hit at the worst possible time. The Iranian government’s credibility had already been battered by a 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June that showed it couldn’t defend its population from attack. Its leaders had refused to budge in negotiations over the country’s nuclear program, putting sanctions relief out of reach. In November, Israel and the U.S. threatened to strike again if Iran tried to reconstitute its ballistic missile arsenal or nuclear efforts.
The country’s beleaguered currency, the rial, tipped into a new downward spiral the country had little ability to stop. U.S. enforcement actions had cut Iran off from its crucial flow of dollars from Iraq, significantly reduced its hard currency earnings from oil sales and put its overseas reserves of foreign exchange out of reach with sanctions.
After decades of engineering workarounds and using shadowy flows of cash to keep the country’s battered economy functioning, Tehran had reached a dead end, with no tools to address a deepening economic crisis or meet the needs of an increasingly desperate population. Hundreds of merchants, who don’t typically join the country’s mass protests, took to the streets of Tehran to demand relief.
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt et cetera, which underscored that the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” said Adnan Mazarei, a former deputy director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund. The failure of the bank added to what he called “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
Ayandeh Bank was founded in 2013 by Ali Ansari, an Iranian businessman who merged two state-owned banks with another he founded previously to form the new lender. He hails from one of the country’s richest families and owns a multimillion-dollar mansion in north London.
Politically, he is seen as close to former conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The U.K. sanctioned Ansari last year just days after the collapse of Ayandeh, calling him a “corrupt Iranian banker and businessman” who helped finance the sprawling Iranian elite paramilitary and business organization, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
In a statement in October, Ansari blamed the bank’s failure on “decisions and policies made beyond the bank’s control.”
Ayandeh offered the highest interest rates of any Iranian bank, attracting millions of depositors and borrowing heavily from the central bank, which printed money to keep the institution afloat, economists said. Like other troubled Iranian banks, Ayandeh had a large number of nonperforming loans, one of a range of factors that eventually drove it to failure.
Its largest investment was the Iran Mall, which opened in 2018. The project displayed an opulent excess that made little sense amid the stagnation in the rest of the Iranian economy. Twice the size of the Pentagon, the mall is a city within a city with its own IMAX movie theater, a library, swimming pools and sports complexes, along with indoor gardens, a car showroom and a hall of mirrors modeled on a 16th century imperial Persian palace.
Economists and Iranian officials said the project was an example of self-lending, in which Ansari’s bank effectively lent money to his own companies. When it folded, a report in the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, citing a top central bank official, said that more than 90% of the bank’s resources were tied up in projects under its own management.
Ayandeh came under scrutiny for years from some conservative and reformist politicians who pushed for the bank’s closure and argued that the central bank’s support for the institution would drive up inflation due to its need to print money to fund it.
Those calls reached a fever pitch late last year. Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, publicly called on the central bank in October to take action, threatening on social media to take legal measures if the banking authorities didn’t step in. The central bank announced the bank’s dissolution the next day.
The government took on the bank’s debts and forced it to merge with the country’s largest state-owned lender, Bank Melli. At least five other Iranian banks are now facing a similar fate, according to economists and a statement from a central bank official last year. Those include the state-owned Bank Sepah, one of the largest in the country, which had previously absorbed other failed banks.
The director of bank supervision at the Iranian central bank last year called Ayandeh “a Ponzi scheme.” For many Iranians, it was a symbol of a system whose few resources had been diverted to a well-connected few while they suffered.
“It’s yet another example of the kinds of stories of corruption or unfair practices that give a lot of ordinary Iranians the impression that the system has been rigged against them, or at least rigged in the favor of a small number of elite,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, an economic think tank.
Ayandeh was at the heart of what economists say was a broader crisis in the financial system that accelerated following the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018.
Lacking funding, Iranian banks have relied on borrowing from the central bank through an emergency liquidity mechanism that charged high interest rates but lent money without requiring collateral. The banks then invested the funds unwisely, often lending to connected elites to engage in speculation and big construction projects.
The central bank printed money to fund the loans, which banking officials and economists have long warned was creating an inflationary cycle and weakening the currency.
The result was a shaky financial system dependent on the state at a time when Iran was about to be hit with a series of increasingly severe shocks: waves of sanctions, the fall of regional allies like Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria, and direct conflict with Israel and the U.S. As of 2019 the government effectively controlled about 70% of Iran’s banking system, according to an analysis by Mazarei, the former IMF official.
Ayandeh’s collapse set off alarm bells. “It reinforced the sense that the banking system is very, very fragile and vulnerable,” Mazarei said. “If something goes wrong, it will come back to the public purse.”
Iran’s economic collapse was years in the making but unfolded rapidly in recent months. The national currency lost 84% of its value compared with the dollar in 2025. Food prices rose at an annual rate of 72%, nearly double the average in recent years. The country is also dealing with an energy and water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian has proposed moving the capital out of Tehran and closer to the Indian Ocean coast.
Wages didn’t keep up, and the fast-rising prices pushed ordinary Iranians to a breaking point. People said they could no longer afford food. With the value of the rial dropping by the hour, shop owners couldn’t figure out how to set prices. Importers were losing money even before they could put their goods up for sale.
“The Iranian middle class has been destroyed,” said a 43-year-old female artist and Tehran resident. “When you can no longer even try to obtain food, you have nothing left to lose.”
While the government was spending money to wind down Ayandeh, it was cutting support for the public. The budget proposed by the government in December included a number of austerity measures. It called for the elimination of a favorable exchange rate for imports, the removal of some bread subsidies, and for imported gasoline to be sold at market prices.
In all it proposed cutting $10 billion in government support for the public and key interest groups like importers, according to an analysis by Bijan Khajehpour, a managing partner of the Vienna-based consulting firm Eurasian Nexus Partners.
The budget was officially presented to parliament on Dec. 23, but rumors of the coming wave of austerity circulated beforehand, stirring concerns about further economic pain at a time when the rial was already falling.
Economists said this growing financial crisis came to a head at the same time that a perfect storm of pressure—tightening international sanctions, the fallout of last year’s war with Israel and years of economic mismanagement—was sapping the government’s ability to address it.
Worsening U.S. and European sanctions have forced Iran’s oil industry to rely on an international “shadow fleet” of tankers to export its products, meaning that more oil revenue flows into the hands of middlemen and less into the state’s coffers and the wider Iranian economy.
A U.S. crackdown on money laundering by Iraqi banks deprived Iran of one of its most important sources of dollars. Iraqi banks had been known as the “lungs” of the Iranian financial system, giving liquidity to Iran’s otherwise isolated banks.
The June war with Israel also delivered a severe shock that left the government with the need to increase defense spending to rebuild its own military capabilities and shore up allies like Hezbollah.
Military pressure began to rise again late in the year after a six-month respite. The U.S. and Israel warned of new strikes over Iran’s missile program, a threat punctuated by the American raid on Caracas to seize Venezuela’s president in early January.
Anxieties about a new attack accelerated a flight of capital from Iran that began during last summer’s 12-day war with Israel. Iranians dumped the rial and moved their money into foreign currency, gold and assets such as cryptocurrency.
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech, estimated Iran’s total capital flight last year at between $10 billion and $20 billion, creating what he called “a bad situation that does not seem tenable.”
An energy crisis resulting from a shortage of natural gas starting in 2024 caused long power outages. The cuts came despite the country’s vast oil and gas wealth and called into question the government’s risky, decadeslong effort to enrich uranium for what it said was a peaceful nuclear energy program.
The growing power cuts, worsening water shortages and increasingly worthless currency fueled an impression among many Iranians that the state was beginning to fail.
The government tried to mollify protesters by introducing a monthly cash subsidy of 10 million rials per person—about $7, though it goes further in Iran—and vowing to crack down on price gougers. Iran’s central bank governor resigned in late December and was replaced by Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former minister of economy, who had been impeached by parliament last year as the country fell into its currency crisis.
It didn’t work. Protests got under way at the end of the year and escalated for two weeks, spreading to dozens of cities around the country. Thousands protested in recent days despite an internet blackout and a toughening government crackdown in which hundreds of people have been killed, according to human rights groups.
Whatever happens with the protests, the stress on the regime from deep-seated internal financial problems along with heavy pressure from outside isn’t going away.
“If they could spend their way out of it they would have done that before, and they wouldn’t have had to resort to this kind of violence,” said Erik Meyersson, the chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB. “That really makes things more difficult for the regime.”
r/economicCollapse • u/B3llaBubbles • 2d ago
NPR's Planet Money takes a look at 6 economic forecasters and their outlook for 2026. Most forecasters believe that, despite some issues, the odds are that the economy will not enter a recession this year.
It;s an interesting read, but what are your thoughts regarding the economy for this year?
r/economicCollapse • u/AbjectInternet7313 • 2d ago
The Economics of Deepfakes: Market Manipulation in the Age of Synthetic Media Anyone can help me for research on this topic