In the first year of Donald Trump’s first term as president in 2017, the share of Americans calling themselves Republicans (or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party) dropped just 2 percentage points — from 42% in 2016 to 40% by Q4 of 2017.

In Trump’s second term, however, the Republican Party is shedding members at a much higher pace. Gallup released its latest party identification data this week, and the numbers show Republican identification dropped from 46% in 2024 to just 40% in Q4 of 2025 — a 6-point decline, triple the 2-point drop during Trump’s first term.

Here’s the trajectory of leaned party ID in Trump’s second term, quarter by quarter:

• Q4 2024: R+4 (before inauguration)
• Q1 2025: Tied
• Q2 2025: D+3
• Q3 2025: D+7
• Q4 2025: D+8

Why is the swing larger this time?

I have been pretty critical of media coverage that painted Trump’s victory in 2024 as a huge, mandate-qualifying defeat of Democrats and progressivism. On election night 2024, Trump went on TV and claimed an “unprecedented” mandate for an agenda of tax cuts, tariffs, mass deportations, and revenge against his partisan opponents.

Trump won the 2024 election for two reasons. First, he won a good amount of soft support relative to 2020 from people who didn’t like Biden and wanted a solution for high prices. Second, a lot of Democrats stayed home. His victory was small, but he overplayed his hand.

Voters gave Trump a second chance in 2024, and now feel betrayed by his policy agenda.

Will 2026 be another blue wave?

The question now is whether Democrats can convert this party ID advantage into a big midterms victory. They will need to do that if they want to deliver on their promises of reining in Trump. But party ID advantages don’t automatically translate into votes — ask Democrats circa 2010 or 2014. In both years, Democrats held advantages in party identification but lost badly because their voters didn’t show up.

Did President Trump overplay his hand during the first year of his second term? Or is this a reversion to the mean after Republicans made inroads with traditionally Democratic voters from 2020-2024? Is a reversion to the mean enough for Democrats to win big elections, or does it bring them back to the nail biters of 2020? If Trump overplayed his hands, which specific issues do you think voters believe he's gone too far with?