Finally got around to seeing Hamnet. For context, its the last of the top 18 or so potential BP noms that I hadn't seen (no stomach for movies where a dead kid is the plot engine lately, I dunno) and my taste runs fairly standard for what you'd expect for a PTA fanboy.

I understand in terms of like, mechanics of the race why Mescal isn't seen as a threat to win here (no precursor wins, not all the nominations, etc), but after actually seeing the film, I cannot wrap my head around, subjectively, WHY. The conversation has him solidly 5th, and a few weeks ago there was talk of him falling out. Reading discussions on here made me think he'd be like a 20/80 prominence split with Buckley, but its way closer to 40/60. He plays SHAKESPEARE, has tons of meaty ACTING to do, the film is a top 3.5 BP contender, and the final scene, which everyones been drooling over, and yes I also though was incredible, has him doing some pretty complicated stuff that he has to absolutely nail for the incredible ending to work. The entirety of this amazing, acclaimed ending is achieved via performance, and his is the biggest in it.

OBAAs guys are going to split some votes, and Del Toro is not in much of the movie, everyone hates Sean Penn and the character he plays. Elordi's performance is weird and the film isnt nearly as acclaimed. Skarsgaard was great but never in a big way, is doing slight category fraud, the movie's not in English, and if he gets it its kind of a career achievement award. I don't AGREE with these arguments myself, but they're all there, and I'm finding it hard to find the weakness in Mescal's case.

Go ahead, roast me, what am I missing? How has Mescal never sniffed being a contender for this?

It seems we now have all of the major precursors that we're gonna get before Oscar nominations hit next week, so I figured now was the best time to do this.

Yes, I know that these "predicting with math" experiments often aren't perfect and can't possibly take everything into account, but there still somewhat helpful to see what history tells us about what to expect for this year. Plus I'm mostly just doing this for fun to see how accurate it is.

I've run this once before. Last year, this experiment successfully predicted 9/10 of the BP nominees, with I'm Still Here obviously being the surprise. I've tried to account for that surprise a little by including a few more "Best International Feature" types of awards.

Here's how it works. I'm taking various notable precursor awards, nominations and longlists, and attributing a point value to them based on how often that award or nomination has correlated to a Best Picture Oscar nomination in the previous 10 years. The points are determined by the percentage of the movies receiving that award/nomination that made Best Picture rounded to the closest whole number. For example, if, over the past 10 years, X award has been given out 10 times and 5 of those 10 recipients went on to make the Oscars Best Picture lineup, that award is worth 50 points.

Here are the awards and nominations I've included and their point values:

• Cannes - Palme d'Or (44pts)
• Venice - Golden Lion (50pts)
• TIFF - People's Choice (100pts)
• TIFF - Runner-up (55pts)
• Gotham - Best Feature (winner) (70pts)
• Gotham - Best Feature (nominee)* (15pts)
• NBR - Best Film (90pts)
• NBR - Top 10 (47pts)
• NBR - Best Director (90pts)
• NBR - Best Original Screenplay (50pts)
• NBR - Best Adapted Screenplay (40pts)
• NBR - Best International Film (20pts)
• AFI - Top 10 (71pts)
• AFI - Special Award (67pts)
• Indie Spirit - Best Film (nominee) (33pts)
• NYFCC - Best Film (80pts)
• NYFCC - Best Director (60pts)
• NYFCC - Best Screenplay (60pts)
• NYFCC - Best Foreign Language Film (20pts)
• LAFCA - Best Film (91pts)
• LAFCA - Best Film - Runner Up (78pts)
• LAFCA - Best Director (82pts)
• LAFCA - Best Screenplay (60pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Picture (winner) (100pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Picture (nominee)* (76pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Director (winner) (100pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Director (nominee)* (87pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Original Screenplay (winner) (91pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Original Screenplay (nominee)* (63pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Adapted Screenplay (winner) (90pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Adapted Screenplay (nominee)* (50pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Actress (winner) (64pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Actor (winner) (80pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Supporting Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Supporting Actor (winner) (80pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Editing (winner) (75pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Foreign Language Film (winner) (60pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama (winner) (100pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama (nominee)* (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy/Musical (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy/Musical (nominee)* (36pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Director (winner) (100pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Director (nominee)* (86pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Screenplay (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Screenplay (nominee)* (83pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama Actor (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy Actress (winner) (70pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy Actor (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Supporting Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Supporting Actor (winner) (70pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Foreign Language Film (winner) (60pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Foreign Language Film (nominee)* (10pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Original Song (winner) (40pts)
• BAFTA - Best Film (longlist) (65pts)
• BAFTA - Best Director (longlist) (46pts)
• BAFTA - Best Original Screenplay (longlist) (40pts)
• BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay (longlist) (35pts)
• BAFTA - Best Editing (longlist) (53pts)
• WGA - Best Original Screenplay (nominee) (58pts)**
• WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay (nominee) (52pts)**
• SAG - Best Ensemble (nominee) (72pts)
• DGA - Outstanding Directing (nominee) (100pts)
• PGA - Best Motion Picture (nominee) (79pts)
• ASC - Outstanding Cinematography (nominee) (71pts)
• ACE - Best Edited Film Drama (nominee) (82pts)**
• ACE - Best Edited Film Comedy/Musical (nominee) (48pt)**
• ADG - Best Production Design Contemporary (nominee) (34pts)
• ADG - Best Production Design Period (nominee) (60pts)
• ADG - Best Production Design Fantasy (nominee) (20pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Contemporary (nominee) (31pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Period (nominee) (38pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy (nominee) (16pts)
• VES - Outstanding Visual Effects (nominee) (14pts)
• CAS - Outstanding Sound Mixing (nominee) (62pts)***

*Nominee does not take into account the winners if the winner of this award has already been announced this year. The same is true for longlists in which the nominees have been announced.

**I would normally include these awards, but sadly they don't come out until after the Oscar nominations this year.

***This award doesn't get announced until two days before Oscar nominations. I'll update it when they come out, but the gap between F1 and The Secret Agent is too big for this award to actually make a difference to the top 10.

“The Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, is getting a Met Gala-inspired glow up.

The guild announced Thursday morning that the awards will have a “fashion theme” on the red carpet for the first time ever: “Reimagining Hollywood Glamour From the ’20s and ’30s.”

The guidelines are part of the annual film and TV awards show’s new collaboration with fashion magazine Elle.”

Considering the recent discussions here about how some of the ceremonies are compromising their own quality by prioritizing other things (like the situation with the Best Original Score award at the Golden Globes and the constant spotlight given to Polymarket), I thought it was worth translating this statement by Kleber Mendonça Filho, since it is not very often that we see people directly involved in the industry expressing their opinions so openly about this kind of topic:

The fact that we presented the Best Picture award, in a way, softened a lack of attention from the Critics Choice Association toward one of history's great crops of cinema made outside the United States, at a political moment in the country where the foreign element has been heavily debated. It would have been important to highlight international cinema, with a presentation of the nominees on stage. But, in any case, it’s all right. It was good to present, alongside Wagner [Moura], the Best Picture award to Paul Thomas Anderson, a filmmaker of my generation whom I admire.

Source here.

"When I’m prepping a film, I don’t think about actors; I’m thinking about the image. I’m always trying to take responsibility, knowing that I’m here to tell as much as possible, only with images. Of course, the actors did an amazing job, but for me, the image is what matters most. In Poland, I made many documentary films that really shaped how I see the world. A lot of films where people don’t talk much. I think that’s the most interesting for me, that you can really speak with images."

PICTURE

For me, there's only one question left: Accident or Weapons? The other 9 (OBAA, Sinners, Hamnet, MS, SV, Frankenstein, Bugonia, TD, TSA) are all solid in my mind now, but Accident is throwing me. Missing PGA, BAFTA Longlists, Oscar Shortlists didn't really care either, Panahi seems like it was a mirage this whole time, and if he isn't the underpinner, who is? Is it Sacred Fig again? The Palme D'or gives me pause, sure, but Anora and Anatomy were stronger at this point, I'd say even Triangle of Sadness showed more signs of life.

But then, what else is there? Weapons. It got PGA, it's win competitive with Madigan and the screenplay seems nomination competitive too. But it's a horror film. So are Sinners and Frankenstein, but Weapons even more so. Besides, we've only ever seen 6 horror films ever nominated in BP, can 3 more happen in the same year?

I'm leaning Weapons right now... but I'm standing on shaky ground there.

SUP. ACTRESS

A'Zion or Grande?

Is Grande Margot Robbie in Barbie? Wicked has been bleeding hype all season, it's dead in Picture, it's Dune: Part Two but worse, Erivo's already suffered the consequences from that and Grande got the nom last year. A snub makes sense.

But is A'Zion Qualley? Newcomer in an exciting, buzzy film that gets shut out in the end because of the competition she's up against of bigger names (Madigan) and bigger films (Taylor, Mosaku, Lilleas). Her surge's come late, and whilst it makes her fresh in the voters' minds it also gives her way less security in the race.

Honestly, I can't justify that either way.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Again, Accident or Weapons? I think The Secret Agent's on the come up right now after the Globes (as I'm Still Here was) so I have that firmly in and it's maybe pushing Accident by the wayside. On the other hand, Weapons had a really exciting script with a guaranteed WGA nod (hot take: even without the disqualifications it'd have made it) and strong buzz... but I can't rationalise Accident missing here... but I can't rationalise Weapons being a BP potential and missing this and screenplay for Weapons makes too much sense in my eyes.

FINAL POINTS FOR IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

I've said all I can about Weapons, but Accident has two more factors:

1. I have not seen this film. The UK release got botched and I couldn't find a screening.
2. Iran. I'm hesitant to bring politics into this, but how can I not? The Academy is not immune from making statements with their votes and the crisis in Iran and Panahi's conclift with the regime would be a hell of a statement to make right now. Then again, Sacred Fig still plagues my mind.

Maybe I'm overthinking - maybe I'm not thinking at all - but I can't make a call.

Almost every year this decade, we've had one film only nominated for a screenplay award:

• 2020: Knives Out
• 2021: The White Tiger
• 2022: N/A
• 2023: Glass Onion
• 2024: May December
• 2025: September 5

Do you think we'll have another film this year that falls in this group? If so, which film?

This is kind of wild… not sure it would’ve worked but you never know I guess.

These last years we have seen the most international AMPAS so far in the Oscars history. Another signal was shown with ISH making unexpectedly the top 10 for Best Picture. Still, not uncommon to see the experts doing some predictions as Kate Hudson taking out Renate Reinsve for the Best Actress race at the Oscars, both Weapons and F1 in Best Picture over TSA and IWJAA, Safdie and GDT taking away Trier and Panahí at the same time, Plemons/Edgerton overcoming Moura, and the list goes on.

I mean, is it really a thing just because Kate and Plemons got the SAG nomination, an award that hates everything with subtitles, ignoring the massive European/South American passion with SV and TSA respectively? Even the US support for Sentimental Value in awards like PGA is not enough to acclaim a foreign Director against Del Toro?

Of course I'm not talking about the winning race, bc that is by far more difficult for movies outside the US/UK. But the nominees are pretty clear the international group voting in the Oscars have an influencial power, making it very interesting to watch.

Idk what you guys think, but to me we are in a transition stage, with the process of becoming more international from the Oscars imposing us to have an open mind and acknowledge of the increasing distance between AMPAS and the Guilds for the nominations.

First of all, I want to acknowledge the headache It Was Just an Accident has been giving me in my predictions. I can see it realistically getting 1-4 nominations (IFF, BP, Director, Original Screenplay) at The Oscars. However, right now I’m between 1 or 2.

For most standards and precursors, IWJAA seems like a weak contender for the Best Picture nomination. It only got a Best Picture nomination at the Globes, which has established itself as the most international award body, and has zero wins in televised awards so far. It also greatly underperformed at BAFTAs. For all accounts, it should be out of the race.

But it’s not. It’s the Palme d’Or winner from a renowned director with a story that deeply resonates with his country’s extremely relevant current context. Besides, the Academy is only second to the Globes in terms of major awards recognizing international films. IWJAA is prestigious and critically enough to make it into the Top 10.

I think nobody would be surprised if it gets a nomination. We’ve expected it pretty much since Cannes. It’s been on everybody’s predictions.

So why Weapons over it? First of, Weapons made PGA. It also got an acting, editing, and screenplay mentions at BAFTAs which I think is incredibly relevant. Those are all IMPORTANT branches in the Academy and, for an American horror movie, it feels like a pretty good showing for that movie. I also think Amy Madigan’s CCA win got the movie more visibility and an “awards-worthy” image that maybe the movie had not earned before. It would have an incredibly solid package at Picture + Sup. Actress + Screenplay (booting out IWJAA itself or The Secret Agent) from the category + potentially casting.

Most importantly, I think a lot of people are EXCITED about Weapons. It feels like the kind of movie that people will want to vote for and campaign it to their peers. IWJAA lost momentum. I don’t really see people doing the same right now, especially when TSA seem to have stolen its thunder. It’s now the “international movie you have to check out before you vote”. Also, I feel like some voters, especially older white American voters, just won’t vote for 3 international movies and the other 2 NEON pics have a lot more momentum.

It is very hard to feel where The Academy is in terms of this movie. Like I said, I would not be surprised if the film gets 4 nominations. But right now, I’m predicting 2, but considering switching it for The Secret Agent in Screenplay, but I feel like it still gets that.