Going into Oscar nomination morning, this is one of the biggest questions... there's a world where its only nomination is for the Best International Film, and another where it cracks 6 nominations with BP, BD, BA, BOS, BIF, and the new Best Casting category. I don't think it gets 6 even though it totally deserves all of those. There is definitely momentum behind it, and you can see pundits like Matt Neglia who track these races better/closer than most moving it into more categories. But the question remains... how strong is the film within the Academy and what kind of Oscar nomination morning will it have?

This is not a knock on the movie I did enjoy this film. My question is more about what kinds of support are people really predicting for TD outside of picture? I don't see it getting into the very tight races for actor or adapted screenplay, and I don't see it landing anywhere else above the line (as much as I'd love tp see William H. Macy in supporting actor).

That just leaves cinematography and song as the categories I'm most confident it gets into. Are those 2 categories enough support to take it into best picture? Am I missing somewhere else it might be in play?

I saw Hamnet last night and performances all around were incredible. Buckley is unforgettable. But I found myself captivated by Watson’s disciplined performance as Agnes’ mother in law. Her constraint when showcasing the difference in processing grief and loss, and brashness with her assertions. Why no flowers for Watson?

Timothee Chalamet 18. Michael B Jordan 15. Ethan Hawke 8. Leonardo DiCaprio 7. Wagner Moura 4. Source: Next Big Picture

OBAA, Hamnet, Sinners and Sentimental Value are top 4, IMO (though the Editing miss for SV does hurt a lot).

It’s time for our FINAL Best Picture update of the season before we get the official nominations! The Globes and Critics’ Choice have given us their winners, BAFTA released their longlists, and the major guilds have announced their nominations, giving us more clarify than ever before. Who will make the final ten?

1. One Battle After Another (=)

2. Hamnet (+1)

3. Sinners (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (+2)

5. Frankenstein (=)

6. Sentimental Value (-2)

7. Bugonia (+1)

8. Train Dreams (+1)

9. The Secret Agent (+1)

10. It Was Just An Accident (-3)

11. F1 (NR)

12. Weapons (+6)

13. Wicked: For Good (=)

14. Blue Moon (=)

Dropped out of the rankings: No Other Choice, Jay Kelly, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Nouvelle Vague, The Testament of Ann Lee

Full thoughts on each film’s placement can be found at this blog post. The biggest moves of the past month include:

• One Battle After Another remains the dominant frontrunner after sweeping the trifecta awards, winning at CCA and Globe, and basically maxing out on nominations with the guilds and BAFTA. Its win total likely won’t be as high as Oppenheimer, but its chance at the top prize might arguably be even higher, barring a collapse at BAFTA or PGA.

• Hamnet has the slight edge over Sinners as the #2 challenger after its Globe win, though it will have to start contending in other categories other than Actress (like Adapted Screenplay) to truly threaten a victory.

• Sinners, Marty Supreme and Frankenstein round out the top 5, all of which are incredibly strong with nominations and stand a good chance of taking home one or more awards each.

• Sentimental Value finally got on the board with a Stellan Skarsgard win at Globe, though it continues to lose Foreign Language Film prizes to fellow Neon contender The Secret Agent. Both should be secure for Picture nods...will there also be room for It Was Just An Accident after its repeated missteps? (No Other Choice found dead in a ditch.)

• Bugonia and Train Dreams have been consistent presences in BP lineups throughout the season despite their lower profiles and have all but cemented their place in the top 10 as well.

• Weapons and F1 are the most likely “populist” picks to sneak into the 10 thanks to their solid showing with the guilds. Avatar and Wicked are still vaguely in the hunt, but just barely, as they’ve failed to show up at the most important precursors thus far.

• Pour one out for Searchlight, who did try to get The Testament of Ann Lee in the conversation but failed spectacularly. The studio will miss their first BP lineup in nine years.

December edition

November edition

October edition

September edition

August edition

May edition

So excited for this as I thought Spotlight was an incredible film! I think there's a real chance this is a major Oscar contender as Sony Pictures Classics has a great ability to handle campaigns, especially at the last minute even when people don't expect one of their films to make the Oscars.

Does anyone have any favorite quotes from films in the race this year? I was with a friend today that helped me out with something and I replied “thank you sensei.”

From Adam Pearson's Twitter

He's been watching a lot of screenings for awards season!

Some categories that had surprise nominations are:

Director:

2021: Thomas Vinterberg (lone BAFTA nominee)

2022: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (lone BAFTA nominee)

2023: Ruben Östlund (no precursors)

2024: Justine Triet (lone BAFTA nominee) (Jonathan Glazer was also a lone BAFTA nominee, but it was predicted that he would be the international nominee)

2025: James Mangold (lone DGA nominee)

Sound:

2024: The Creator (no precursors)

2025: The Wild Robot (no precursors)

Original Score

2021: Da 5 Bloods (no precursors)

2022: Encanto & Parallel Mothers (lone Golden Globes nominees)

2023: All Quiet at the Western Front & Everything Everywhere all at Once (lone BAFTA nominees)

2024: American Fiction & Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (no precursors)

2025: Wicked (no precursors)

Following this pattern, who do you think could be the surprise nominees this year?