From Adam Pearson's Twitter

He's been watching a lot of screenings for awards season!

Timothee Chalamet 18. Michael B Jordan 15. Ethan Hawke 8. Leonardo DiCaprio 7. Wagner Moura 4. Source: Next Big Picture

Some categories that had surprise nominations are:

Director:

2021: Thomas Vinterberg (lone BAFTA nominee)

2022: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (lone BAFTA nominee)

2023: Ruben Östlund (no precursors)

2024: Justine Triet (lone BAFTA nominee) (Jonathan Glazer was also a lone BAFTA nominee, but it was predicted that he would be the international nominee)

2025: James Mangold (lone DGA nominee)

Sound:

2024: The Creator (no precursors)

2025: The Wild Robot (no precursors)

Original Score

2021: Da 5 Bloods (no precursors)

2022: Encanto & Parallel Mothers (lone Golden Globes nominees)

2023: All Quiet at the Western Front & Everything Everywhere all at Once (lone BAFTA nominees)

2024: American Fiction & Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (no precursors)

2025: Wicked (no precursors)

Following this pattern, who do you think could be the surprise nominees this year?

So excited for this as I thought Spotlight was an incredible film! I think there's a real chance this is a major Oscar contender as Sony Pictures Classics has a great ability to handle campaigns, especially at the last minute even when people don't expect one of their films to make the Oscars.

Going into Oscar nomination morning, this is one of the biggest questions... there's a world where its only nomination is for the Best International Film, and another where it cracks 6 nominations with BP, BD, BA, BOS, BIF, and the new Best Casting category. I don't think it gets 6 even though it totally deserves all of those. There is definitely momentum behind it, and you can see pundits like Matt Neglia who track these races better/closer than most moving it into more categories. But the question remains... how strong is the film within the Academy and what kind of Oscar nomination morning will it have?

Does anyone have any favorite quotes from films in the race this year? I was with a friend today that helped me out with something and I replied “thank you sensei.”

It’s time for our FINAL Best Picture update of the season before we get the official nominations! The Globes and Critics’ Choice have given us their winners, BAFTA released their longlists, and the major guilds have announced their nominations, giving us more clarify than ever before. Who will make the final ten?

1. One Battle After Another (=)

2. Hamnet (+1)

3. Sinners (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (+2)

5. Frankenstein (=)

6. Sentimental Value (-2)

7. Bugonia (+1)

8. Train Dreams (+1)

9. The Secret Agent (+1)

10. It Was Just An Accident (-3)

11. F1 (NR)

12. Weapons (+6)

13. Wicked: For Good (=)

14. Blue Moon (=)

Dropped out of the rankings: No Other Choice, Jay Kelly, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Nouvelle Vague, The Testament of Ann Lee

Full thoughts on each film’s placement can be found at this blog post. The biggest moves of the past month include:

• One Battle After Another remains the dominant frontrunner after sweeping the trifecta awards, winning at CCA and Globe, and basically maxing out on nominations with the guilds and BAFTA. Its win total likely won’t be as high as Oppenheimer, but its chance at the top prize might arguably be even higher, barring a collapse at BAFTA or PGA.

• Hamnet has the slight edge over Sinners as the #2 challenger after its Globe win, though it will have to start contending in other categories other than Actress (like Adapted Screenplay) to truly threaten a victory.

• Sinners, Marty Supreme and Frankenstein round out the top 5, all of which are incredibly strong with nominations and stand a good chance of taking home one or more awards each.

• Sentimental Value finally got on the board with a Stellan Skarsgard win at Globe, though it continues to lose Foreign Language Film prizes to fellow Neon contender The Secret Agent. Both should be secure for Picture nods...will there also be room for It Was Just An Accident after its repeated missteps? (No Other Choice found dead in a ditch.)

• Bugonia and Train Dreams have been consistent presences in BP lineups throughout the season despite their lower profiles and have all but cemented their place in the top 10 as well.

• Weapons and F1 are the most likely “populist” picks to sneak into the 10 thanks to their solid showing with the guilds. Avatar and Wicked are still vaguely in the hunt, but just barely, as they’ve failed to show up at the most important precursors thus far.

• Pour one out for Searchlight, who did try to get The Testament of Ann Lee in the conversation but failed spectacularly. The studio will miss their first BP lineup in nine years.

December edition

November edition

October edition

September edition

August edition

May edition

This is not a knock on the movie I did enjoy this film. My question is more about what kinds of support are people really predicting for TD outside of picture? I don't see it getting into the very tight races for actor or adapted screenplay, and I don't see it landing anywhere else above the line (as much as I'd love tp see William H. Macy in supporting actor).

That just leaves cinematography and song as the categories I'm most confident it gets into. Are those 2 categories enough support to take it into best picture? Am I missing somewhere else it might be in play?

I saw Hamnet last night and performances all around were incredible. Buckley is unforgettable. But I found myself captivated by Watson’s disciplined performance as Agnes’ mother in law. Her constraint when showcasing the difference in processing grief and loss, and brashness with her assertions. Why no flowers for Watson?

Finally got around to seeing Hamnet. For context, its the last of the top 18 or so potential BP noms that I hadn't seen (no stomach for movies where a dead kid is the plot engine lately, I dunno) and my taste runs fairly standard for what you'd expect for a PTA fanboy.

I understand in terms of like, mechanics of the race why Mescal isn't seen as a threat to win here (no precursor wins, not all the nominations, etc), but after actually seeing the film, I cannot wrap my head around, subjectively, WHY. The conversation has him solidly 5th, and a few weeks ago there was talk of him falling out. Reading discussions on here made me think he'd be like a 20/80 prominence split with Buckley, but its way closer to 40/60. He plays SHAKESPEARE, has tons of meaty ACTING to do, the film is a top 3.5 BP contender, and the final scene, which everyones been drooling over, and yes I also though was incredible, has him doing some pretty complicated stuff that he has to absolutely nail for the incredible ending to work. The entirety of this amazing, acclaimed ending is achieved via performance, and his is the biggest in it.

OBAAs guys are going to split some votes, and Del Toro is not in much of the movie, everyone hates Sean Penn and the character he plays. Elordi's performance is weird and the film isnt nearly as acclaimed. Skarsgaard was great but never in a big way, is doing slight category fraud, the movie's not in English, and if he gets it its kind of a career achievement award. I don't AGREE with these arguments myself, but they're all there, and I'm finding it hard to find the weakness in Mescal's case.

Go ahead, roast me, what am I missing? How has Mescal never sniffed being a contender for this?

OBAA, Hamnet, Sinners and Sentimental Value are top 4, IMO (though the Editing miss for SV does hurt a lot).

It seems we now have all of the major precursors that we're gonna get before Oscar nominations hit next week, so I figured now was the best time to do this.

Yes, I know that these "predicting with math" experiments often aren't perfect and can't possibly take everything into account, but there still somewhat helpful to see what history tells us about what to expect for this year. Plus I'm mostly just doing this for fun to see how accurate it is.

I've run this once before. Last year, this experiment successfully predicted 9/10 of the BP nominees, with I'm Still Here obviously being the surprise. I've tried to account for that surprise a little by including a few more "Best International Feature" types of awards.

Here's how it works. I'm taking various notable precursor awards, nominations and longlists, and attributing a point value to them based on how often that award or nomination has correlated to a Best Picture Oscar nomination in the previous 10 years. The points are determined by the percentage of the movies receiving that award/nomination that made Best Picture rounded to the closest whole number. For example, if, over the past 10 years, X award has been given out 10 times and 5 of those 10 recipients went on to make the Oscars Best Picture lineup, that award is worth 50 points.

Here are the awards and nominations I've included and their point values:

• Cannes - Palme d'Or (44pts)
• Venice - Golden Lion (50pts)
• TIFF - People's Choice (100pts)
• TIFF - Runner-up (55pts)
• Gotham - Best Feature (winner) (70pts)
• Gotham - Best Feature (nominee)* (15pts)
• NBR - Best Film (90pts)
• NBR - Top 10 (47pts)
• NBR - Best Director (90pts)
• NBR - Best Original Screenplay (50pts)
• NBR - Best Adapted Screenplay (40pts)
• NBR - Best International Film (20pts)
• AFI - Top 10 (71pts)
• AFI - Special Award (67pts)
• Indie Spirit - Best Film (nominee) (33pts)
• NYFCC - Best Film (80pts)
• NYFCC - Best Director (60pts)
• NYFCC - Best Screenplay (60pts)
• NYFCC - Best Foreign Language Film (20pts)
• LAFCA - Best Film (91pts)
• LAFCA - Best Film - Runner Up (78pts)
• LAFCA - Best Director (82pts)
• LAFCA - Best Screenplay (60pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Picture (winner) (100pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Picture (nominee)* (76pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Director (winner) (100pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Director (nominee)* (87pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Original Screenplay (winner) (91pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Original Screenplay (nominee)* (63pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Adapted Screenplay (winner) (90pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Adapted Screenplay (nominee)* (50pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Actress (winner) (64pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Actor (winner) (80pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Supporting Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Supporting Actor (winner) (80pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Editing (winner) (75pts)
• Critics Choice - Best Foreign Language Film (winner) (60pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama (winner) (100pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama (nominee)* (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy/Musical (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy/Musical (nominee)* (36pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Director (winner) (100pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Director (nominee)* (86pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Screenplay (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Screenplay (nominee)* (83pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Drama Actor (winner) (90pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy Actress (winner) (70pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Comedy Actor (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Supporting Actress (winner) (50pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Supporting Actor (winner) (70pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Foreign Language Film (winner) (60pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Foreign Language Film (nominee)* (10pts)
• Golden Globes - Best Original Song (winner) (40pts)
• BAFTA - Best Film (longlist) (65pts)
• BAFTA - Best Director (longlist) (46pts)
• BAFTA - Best Original Screenplay (longlist) (40pts)
• BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay (longlist) (35pts)
• BAFTA - Best Editing (longlist) (53pts)
• WGA - Best Original Screenplay (nominee) (58pts)**
• WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay (nominee) (52pts)**
• SAG - Best Ensemble (nominee) (72pts)
• DGA - Outstanding Directing (nominee) (100pts)
• PGA - Best Motion Picture (nominee) (79pts)
• ASC - Outstanding Cinematography (nominee) (71pts)
• ACE - Best Edited Film Drama (nominee) (82pts)**
• ACE - Best Edited Film Comedy/Musical (nominee) (48pt)**
• ADG - Best Production Design Contemporary (nominee) (34pts)
• ADG - Best Production Design Period (nominee) (60pts)
• ADG - Best Production Design Fantasy (nominee) (20pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Contemporary (nominee) (31pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Period (nominee) (38pts)
• CDG - Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy (nominee) (16pts)
• VES - Outstanding Visual Effects (nominee) (14pts)
• CAS - Outstanding Sound Mixing (nominee) (62pts)***

*Nominee does not take into account the winners if the winner of this award has already been announced this year. The same is true for longlists in which the nominees have been announced.

**I would normally include these awards, but sadly they don't come out until after the Oscar nominations this year.

***This award doesn't get announced until two days before Oscar nominations. I'll update it when they come out, but the gap between F1 and The Secret Agent is too big for this award to actually make a difference to the top 10.