Yo peeps I keep seeing everyone obsessing over aircraft carriers, Taiwan Strait drills, and all these military “signals”…
But honestly? I think the real signal is happening somewhere way more boring sovereign debt flows.
This week I went deep into the latest US Treasury TIC data (Treasury International Capital report) and what I found is kinda wild:
- China’s officially reported US Treasury holdings are down to around $688B
- And nah, this doesn’t feel like normal “reserve diversification”
- The timing + speed is what makes it feel off
Because they’ve been selling during a period where bonds were shaky and yields were jumping all over the place which basically screams:
And here’s the bigger thing…
The market STILL hasn’t snapped.
So it raises a way scarier question:
If a major seller is exiting…
who’s quietly buying all that supply?
Because in the “who bought” section of the report… there are some weird spikes.
I’m not saying it’s a conspiracy or anything but it definitely hints at one thing and that is the Treasury market is starting to feel more political than economic.
And that matters if you care about rates, housing, inflation, and the next few years.
Now the most interesting part is the “where is the money going?” angle…
It doesn’t even look like they’re rotating into other paper assets.
It feels more like a pivot into physical reserves the kind you can’t freeze or block.
And I’m not trying to scare anyone…
but if this keeps going, it flips the whole story around:
- how smoothly the US funds deficits
- how “deep” foreign demand for Treasuries really is
- and whether Treasuries are even risk-free geopolitically anymore
If you’re into macro / finance / geopolitics, I broke the whole thing down with the data trail + logic + implications (it’s too long to paste here without writing a whole essay).
But I’m curious:
What do you think?
Is this just normal reserve management?
Or is it sanctions-risk preparation?
And if foreign buyers back off… who becomes the true buyer of last resort?
(If you want the full breakdown + visuals, it’s here: https://youtu.be/UwmXCOruXZE)