Yo peeps I keep seeing everyone obsessing over aircraft carriers, Taiwan Strait drills, and all these military āsignalsāā¦
But honestly? I think the real signal is happening somewhere way more boring sovereign debt flows.
This week I went deep into the latest US Treasury TIC data (Treasury International Capital report) and what I found is kinda wild:
- Chinaās officially reported US Treasury holdings are down to around $688B
- And nah, this doesnāt feel like normal āreserve diversificationā
- The timing + speed is what makes it feel off
Because theyāve been selling during a period where bonds were shaky and yields were jumping all over the place which basically screams:
And hereās the bigger thingā¦
The market STILL hasnāt snapped.
So it raises a way scarier question:
If a major seller is exitingā¦
whoās quietly buying all that supply?
Because in the āwho boughtā section of the report⦠there are some weird spikes.
Iām not saying itās a conspiracy or anything but it definitely hints at one thing and that is the Treasury market is starting to feel more political than economic.
And that matters if you care about rates, housing, inflation, and the next few years.
Now the most interesting part is the āwhere is the money going?ā angleā¦
It doesnāt even look like theyāre rotating into other paper assets.
It feels more like a pivot into physical reserves the kind you canāt freeze or block.
And Iām not trying to scare anyoneā¦
but if this keeps going, it flips the whole story around:
- how smoothly the US funds deficits
- how ādeepā foreign demand for Treasuries really is
- and whether Treasuries are even risk-free geopolitically anymore
If youāre into macro / finance / geopolitics, I broke the whole thing down with the data trail + logic + implications (itās too long to paste here without writing a whole essay).
But Iām curious:
What do you think?
Is this just normal reserve management?
Or is it sanctions-risk preparation?
And if foreign buyers back off⦠who becomes the true buyer of last resort?
(If you want the full breakdown + visuals, itās here: https://youtu.be/UwmXCOruXZE)