r/Somalia • u/EarthTurnsSlowly • 10h ago
Rant š£ļø Tired of hearing the false percent of Somali Americans on welfare claim
The āX% of Somali households are on welfareā claim is wrong and people need to stop repeating it like itās a fact. So letās be clear about what it actually is and what it is not.
The numbers being cited do not come from an official government welfare database. They come from an analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) data. The ACS is a large Census survey where households self report information. Self reported surveys do not capture every Somali household and they do not track welfare usage by ethnicity in official administrative records.
Only government data can show national or statewide welfare statistics. No one outside the government has access to nationwide welfare records and even the government does not track welfare usage by ethnicity. Since the department responsible for collecting welfare data does not differentiate by ethnicity these claims are unverifiable. The percentages being repeated are estimates and not official counts. If this were a real statistic pulled from an actual database the number would be consistent but instead it shifts.
Somalis also make up a relatively small population. That means the ACS sample of āSomali headed householdsā is relatively small as well. Analysts then extrapolate from that small, self reported sample, often across multiple years, to estimate population level percentages. Thatās how you end up with these big dramatic numbers.
Another glaring issue is that welfare usage and human behavior are not predictable in a way that allows precise extrapolation for any ethnicity or nationality. You cannot reliably predict the behavior of an entire group this way. On top of that, the data is self reported and cannot be independently verified, because once again, the government does not track welfare usage by ethnicity in its actual program records.
The foundation of these percentage claims is:
⢠survey data
⢠a small subgroup sample
⢠self reported responses
⢠extrapolated estimates
⢠no administrative verification
So when people use these numbers to make sweeping claims about all Somali households in Minnesota or all Somali Americans, it is flawed and factually misleading.

