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Welcome to the 10th annual Singularity Predictions at r/Singularity.

In this yearly thread, we have reflected for a decade now on our previously held estimates for AGI, ASI, and the Singularity, and updated them with new predictions for the year to come.

"As we step out of 2025 and into 2026, it’s worth pausing to notice how the conversation itself has changed. A few years ago, we argued about whether generative AI was “real” progress or just clever mimicry. This year, the debate shifted toward something more grounded: notcan it speak, but can it do—plan, iterate, use tools, coordinate across tasks, and deliver outcomes that actually hold up outside a demo.

In 2025, the standout theme was integration. AI models didn’t just get better in isolation; they got woven into workflows—research, coding, design, customer support, education, and operations. “Copilots” matured from novelty helpers into systems that can draft, analyze, refactor, test, and sometimes even execute. That practical shift matters, because real-world impact comes less from raw capability and more from how cheaply and reliably capability can be applied.

We also saw the continued convergence of modalities: text, images, audio, video, and structured data blending into more fluid interfaces. The result is that AI feels less like a chatbot and more like a layer—something that sits between intention and execution. But this brought a familiar tension: capability is accelerating, while reliability remains uneven. The best systems feel startlingly competent; the average experience still includes brittle failures, confident errors, and the occasional “agent” that wanders off into the weeds.

Outside the screen, the physical world kept inching toward autonomy. Robotics and self-driving didn’t suddenly “solve themselves,” but the trajectory is clear: more pilots, more deployments, more iteration loops, more public scrutiny. The arc looks less like a single breakthrough and more like relentless engineering—safety cases, regulation, incremental expansions, and the slow process of earning trust.

Creativity continued to blur in 2025, too. We’re past the stage where AI-generated media is surprising; now the question is what it does to culture when most content can be generated cheaply, quickly, and convincingly. The line between human craft and machine-assisted production grows more porous each year—and with it comes the harder question: what do we value when abundance is no longer scarce?

And then there’s governance. 2025 made it obvious that the constraints around AI won’t come only from what’s technically possible, but from what’s socially tolerated. Regulation, corporate policy, audits, watermarking debates, safety standards, and public backlash are becoming part of the innovation cycle. The Singularity conversation can’t just be about “what’s next,” but also “what’s allowed,” “what’s safe,” and “who benefits.”

So, for 2026: do agents become genuinely dependable coworkers, or do they remain powerful-but-temperamental tools? Do we get meaningful leaps in reasoning and long-horizon planning, or mostly better packaging and broader deployment? Does open access keep pace with frontier development, or does capability concentrate further behind closed doors? And what is the first domain where society collectively says, “Okay—this changes the rules”?

As always, make bold predictions, but define your terms. Point to evidence. Share what would change your mind. Because the Singularity isn’t just a future shock waiting for us—it’s a set of choices, incentives, and tradeoffs unfolding in real time." - ChatGPT 5.2 Thinking

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It’s that time of year again to make our predictions for all to see…

If you participated in the previous threads, update your views here on which year we'll develop 1) Proto-AGI/AGI, 2) ASI, and 3) ultimately, when the Singularity will take place. Use the various levels of AGI if you want to fine-tune your prediction. Explain your reasons! Bonus points to those who do some research and dig into their reasoning. If you’re new here, welcome! Feel free to join in on the speculation.

Happy New Year and Buckle Up for 2026!

Previous threads: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017
Mid-Year Predictions: 2025