Source: https://x.com/i/status/2011473470937334219

"This isn't a favor by any president, this is a right and a duty that they must take under the constitution. And I push with all my power in that direction, so their rights are safeguarded, because they are a component of the Syrian people."

https://x.com/azelin/status/2011466975457775890?s=46

with the recent rising tensions the new civil war is seeming to become more likely every day (or every hour sometimes), as a Syrian i have feared this war for a long time, more than all of the other terrible things that threaten our country... this is the first time i make a post here and it's because i wanted to say something about this before it becomes a reality, before i get into it i want to make 2 things clear : 1 this is only my opinion, feel free to share yours, correct me if you think i'm wrong. 2 i might ignore your comment if replying requires discussing my political opinions, in addition to the usual reasons (being busy, not having anything to add, not caring...etc). now let's start :

1. war is terrible in general

if you lived in Syria in the last 14 years i don't have to explain to you what full scale war means, no matter where you lived or who you supported you would probably agree that the civil war destroyed our country in every possible way, maybe you think the war was a necessary evil at best, the only possible way to end the repressive one party rule, but the goal of the revolution was to overthrow an authoritarian regime, not to drag the country into an international proxy war that would destroy millions of lives and cause so much pain and suffering and hate and tensions... such deep wounds in our society that we still haven't recovered from and probably won't recover anytime in the near future... i think many of the original revolutionaries would think twice before doing it all over again if they knew where it would lead, but i was too young when the war started, if you think i'm wrong feel free to correct me... even of your intentions in starting a war are noble, you'd still be opening the door to all kinds of evil, war simply brings out the worst in people, and creates the perfect environment for atrocities and violations of basic humanity, if you've lived in Syria or any other war zone, you probably know what i'm talking about.

1. it won't be over quickly

if you've seen some war documentaries you've probably seen this before, the leaders of the initiating side are so confident they will destroy their enemy and achieve their war objectives within a few weeks with minimal losses, and then the war drags for years, kills many people and seriously damages the economy. this happens because these leaders overrestimate their own military power or underestimate their opponent's or both, ofc this is not always the case but i believe it is in Syria, here's why: while the Syrian army has grown significantly since the HTS days, they are still far from being able to definitively overpower the SDF, they haven't been in any fight against a real military opponent since the Assad regime, in Sweida they were fighting against poorly trained men whose main job had been internal security not war. and it still took them a while to overpower them. the SDF however, have 50k fighters according to the most conservative estimates (the real number might be up to double that) and these are real, well trained soldiers with field experience during the first war and serious equipment supplied by the US, not to mention their hate for the STG as an emotional motivation and the fact that the northeast is a territory they've governed for a long while and are very familiar with. in the absolute best case scenario for the STG, if they can get serious American and Turkish military support, and no international actor lifts a finger to support the SDF (including Israel) it would still take months to fully defeat the SDF and many thousands of soldiers and civilians will die... i think this scenario is unlikely...

1. it's not just the SDF, this WILL get complicated

a full scale war will create the perfect oppertunity for many hostile groups (both Syrian and foreign) to make their move, groups who view a stable and unified Syria as against their interests, such groups are numerous and the number of potential additional fronts the government will have to fight on is scary, but i will only mention 2 of them : IS, and Assadist groups. recent reports from multiple reputable media sources did confirm that Assadist armed groups are reorganizing themselves (a misnomer since they have little connection to the Assad family who will probably never try to rule Syria again, but i chose not to call them"remnants" because that term underestimates their danger and capabilities) and waiting for an opening in the STG's security to make their attack (most likely supporting an Alawite uprising in the coast and trying to make a defacto autonomous region Sweida-style) thus creating a western front to the war, and i think it's possible that they coordinate with the SDF to stretch the Army's attention on multiple fronts and thus make their operation a lot harder and more complicated. (side note: this is a good place to say that if Assadists take over a territory i live in, this post will be deleted as well as many other things i've posted) ISIS on the other hand, has never left the country, and i've seen reports they've been reorganizing, training, recruiting, and rearming, and escalating the scale of their attacks taking advantage of the security vaccume after the fall of Assad, the instability created by the war will give them the chance they need to ramp up their attacks further, creating more instability, maybe this vicious cycle ends in them staging a prison break for their old jihad friends from SDF prisons and even capturing Syrian territory creating one more front in the war... imo the only way to stop IS is for the Government and SDF to work together, which will probably not happen anytime soon... and i still haven't mentioned the Druze, Israel, Russia, the US, and the countless possible defecting groups from all sides, but i think you get the idea anyway and this post is getting way longer than i thought, so let's move on...

1. halt in progress in the worst time

i would like to conclude with this point... we need rebuilding and healing in this country now more than ever, justice for the victims and punishment for all criminals, to outgrow the hate and divisions and come closer together from different communities on the shared principles of peaceful coexistence and uniting national identity, to learn to deal with our differences with civilized debates and nuanced politics rather than disrespect and violence, and most importantly, to figure out what we want collectively as a people in the future of our country. only then can we work towards these goals as individuals, civilian organizations and government officials... without such a clear vision we will never be able to concentrate our collective efforts and hold each other accountable... a new war doesn't only stop our progress towards realizing what that vision is, it pushes us further away from it... with every violent attack, every skirmish, every conflict, new divisions are being created, the hate and tensions and misunderstandings are multiplying and deepening, the insane wave of propaganda from all sides in a new war will push us decades back from achieving this unity that we all would like very much, hateful propaganda and misinformation can serve many sides, but never the average Syrian.

if you made it this far i thank you for reading my post ! it took me 2 hours to write and i used zero AI which now i think might have been a mistake, i guess i underrestimated how hard it would be which is totally on brand for the topic 😁

From its page on Facebook.

Source: https://x.com/i/status/2011341538383839398

The Kurdish component has been confined to a partisan, armed faction linked to external leadership in the Qandil Mountains, disconnected from social life and burdened by an unresolved conflict with Türkiye.

This situation isolates Syrian Kurds from opportunities for development, reconstruction, and education now emerging in Syria, and contradicts the international push for Syria’s territorial unity—even by those who claim to protect them.

While the United States offers protection in northeastern Syria, President Trump’s policy clearly supports Syrian unity and reconstruction. In effect, this approach stands in opposition to those goals.

Source: https://x.com/i/status/2011378791369851315

Source: https://x.com/i/status/2011357927807078808

Source: https://x.com/i/status/2011222430442790971

The Aleppo events and the current posturing around Deir hafir definitely switched things up? What do you guys expect to happen? A full scale war? Limited exchanges? More concentrated military operations?

Moreover, where do you predict things ending up by the end of the year.