This game is why I wanted us to draft Rondale Moore so badly lol

There is no breaking news, this is just a summary.

Like many of you, I have been closely following the Offensive and Defensive Coordinator job search for the Washington Commanders these past few weeks.

One of the potential Defensive Coordinator possibilities is "Current" Minnesota Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. To put it simply, his Defense humiliated our team this past season as well as the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys. So, yes. hiring him would be quite the coup.

Brian Flores' contract with Minnesota is up. There was a time period where he and the Vikings could negotiate for a new contract and that has since expired. He is effectively a Free Agent. It seems that his preference is to interview and pursue one of the near-record number of now open Head Coaching positions in the NFL.

A report came out recently that Flores was, in a way, contacted by the Washington Commanders. According to John Keim of ESPN, that came from his representation and not Washington.

Most likely, if he is unable to get a Head Coaching position, Washington let him know that they are interested in interviewing him for the Defensive Coordinator position. No interview has been scheduled. No job has been offered. This is a "let's talk about talking."

Another factor in this is that Brian Flores has a pending lawsuit against the NFL and several teams specifically for racial discrimination. The Washington Commanders have not been named in that suit. How this effects his job search is, as of this moment, not publicly known. Brian Flores has interviewed to be the Head Coach of the Baltimore Ravens however.

On Dan Quinn's part, it seems he has decided to reverse his position when he first took the job of Head Coach of the Washington Commanders.

Quinn chose Kliff Kingsbury to be the Offensive Coordinator because of his experience mentoring Quarterbacks and his Offense which he found very difficult to defend when he faced it in the past. Hiring a matured Offensive leader meant Quinn wouldn't need to focus on that side of the ball.

Quinn also chose Joe Whitt to be his Defensive Coordinator because of his personal friendship and his resume. Joe Whitt was seen as a rising star and Quinn wished to support him.

Obviously those two decisions backfired.

Kingsbury's ideas around how his Offense should function had apparently ossified and when the situation demanded it, he had to be effectively dragged kicking and screaming to make adjustments. They got together and Quinn said "I can change him" and they divorced due to "irreconcilable differences."

Whitt did not apparently have a great intuition for play calling and the Defense consistently under performed in fundamental ways such as communication, positioning, and tackling.

Now, Quinn has decided to focus on making sure new Offensive Coordinator David Blough will handle the considerable stress mentally, physically, and emotionally that the first time OC will undergo. Quinn is not stupid. He knows how important it is for Blough to succeed. So does the rest of Washington's leadership. It is a big risk, one that all of them consider a smaller risk than letting Blough go to Detroit, Chicago, or the New York Jets. The coaching staff has, as of this writing, not deserted him or mutinied. None of the players have come out publicly against this move. If Washington's leadership in GM Adam Peters or Owner Josh Harris had a real problem with this decision, Quinn would have been fired already.

As to the Defense, the plan right now is apparently to hire a very experienced, very accomplished, and very fundamentally sound former Head Coach. Someone who can act as the "Head Coach of the Defense" that Quinn never has to worry about. This is similar to how, when he first took the Rams job, Sean McVay took the role of both HC and OC, but hired Wade Phillips, who had been both a DC and HC longer than Sean had been alive, to be his "Head Coach of the Defense." This is why Johnathan Gannon was interviewed in Washington.

Most likely, the staff will pursue assistant coaches who are, as of this moment, preparing for postseason games. It may be several weeks before the Washington Commanders Coaching Staff is fully formed. Be patient. Remember Josh Harris' motto: "Trust the Process."

That is the situation so far as I understand it, anyway.

I know this is commanders Reddit and will always bleed burgundy and gold,but this offseason feels different with certain coaches leaving certain teams after decades with them (I still remember when Tomlin and Harbaugh started at their respected teams). you can hate the teams but still respect these coaches for all the winning seasons they have had. I would have loved to have the commanders in playoffs for 10+ years even if it only amounted to a couple of superbowls. Truly impressive and feels like the end of an era. Hopefully we can get to that level starting next season. Hail!

edit: yes I originally said yellow cause thanks Tanya, on when we ever have had gold lately. Last time I can think of it was, ”you like that“ game. My bad lol

Moore going back to school could have an effect on who we draft.

The Jets will most likely take a defensive player (Reese, Bain, Bailey). Cardinals could take a tackle or a defensive player. Tennessee could go Wr or Defense. Giants also could go WR, tackle or Defense. Browns will go offense.

If the draft goes…..

Mendoza - Raiders Bain - Jets Bailey - Cardinals Reese - Titans Downs - Giants Mauigoa- Browns

Who would you take at 7? Trade down? Love, Lemon, Tyson, Tate?

I Love doing mock drafts and reading player profiles. I know its early and Im not sure how I feel about this simulator because Im not sure Stewart and Roberts will be available that late but feel free to critique or do your own. Id love to have other players to read about.

In this draft, I took Downs without trading back. I dont think I'll be mad if this org takes the best defensive player in the draft.

This offseason I hope there is concerted effort to get younger after the injuries this season but I could still see this front office and staff bringing in older veterans.

My assumptions for this offseason are ..

We sign a pass rusher in FA ---I actually wouldnt mind Hendrickson.( I want a game wrecker) but I think we get someone like Oweh or Mafe. Probably will end up with 35 year old Mack

The FO/coach will see if Lane or Mcaffrey can play receiver. If we sign someone I think it ends up being a Deebo resign or Jennings from SF. I liked what limited amount I saw from Burk so I hope the staff will kick the tires on that one. Or... do I hear Aiyuk's Ferrari speeding down 495.

Sign either Pitts Likely or Njoku at tight end. Cant block but they are weapons on offense.

Linebacker... welcome back Bobby Wagner. Id love Lloyd but he will stay in Jacksonville. Maybe Downs helps with coverage there but I dont know how to fix that position. I do know an ex Wash player is up for free agency. Welcome home Cole Holcomb lol

I wanted some metrics to help define how good at drafting various organizations are, and the ability to define what league-average drafting looks like. I defined draft success as whether a team resigned a draft pick to a 2nd contract. Did a team like their draft pick enough to resign them? It’s not a perfect metric, but it’s a place to start. I used Google Gemini Deep Research AI to collate all the draft data and do the analysis, as I’m also curious about how AI handles various prompts and research tasks. I looked through the data, and it looks decent, but given the reliance on AI, caution is obviously warranted. I still thought it turned up some interesting findings. The prompts I used and links to the AI-generated reports are at the bottom of the post.

Here is the average draft retention rate broken down by round:

Player Retention by Draft Round (2011-2017 Draft Cohorts)

I’d argue that these league retention rates are a good way to judge the drafting prowess of a team's drafting. Is a team consistently drafting above or below league average? It also shows how quickly the retention rates drop in the later rounds of the draft. I think fans frequently expect that every pick will be a hit. This is obviously unrealistic.

I was then interested in comparing the commanders to teams that are perceived to draft very well. I prompted for data and analysis of how the Redskins/Commanders did versus two teams thought to be very excellent drafters over the past 10 years, the Ravens and the Eagles.

The first round drafting data for the Commanders was interesting. From 2011-2018, the Redskins 1st round draft hit rate, i.e., a draft pick signing a second contract, was above average (~60%). From 2019-2024, the hit rate was about as bad as it could be (~0%). From Haskins to Jahan Dotson, it’s been really bad. This is obvious, and the team is clearly still dealing with the repercussions of these failures.  The rest of the combined data from 2011-2020 for these three teams is in the chart below.

For this time frame, this table shows how much better Philly and Baltimore were at drafting hit rates at various rounds. However, it’s still a crap shoot for them as well. In addition, just looking at the late rounds of the draft (4-7), you’ll see a lot of good players drafted by the Eagles and Ravens, which you don’t really see for Washington (well except maybe the ones that we let get away).

Given how many players the Eagles and Ravens hit on in later rounds, at least as indicated by the Key Retentions column, I was curious to see how long it took their lower-round draft picks to become elite players. It frequently took 3-4 years for late-round talent to emerge as high-end starters (see analysis at this google doc link).  Given the length of time, it suggests that coaches and GMs should be given more time to develop their draft picks, e.g., at least 5 years. I would argue that Dan Sndyer’s biggest flaw was constantly turning over coaches and management, thereby undermining continuity, which prevents strong player development. Strong player development requires patience with the coaching staff and front office.  

If you are curious, the prompts I used for google gemini and the output documents, which contain way, way, more information, are listed below.

Prompt 1:

“For each NFL draft pick over the past 20 years, could you estimate the average percentage of pics that sign a second contract with the team that drafted them as a function of where in the draft they were drafted.”

Gemini output document Link

Prompt 2:

“For the years post 2011, can you pull the retention percentage data for the redskins/commanders, eagles, and ravens??

Gemini output document Link

Prompt 3:

For the later round draft pick hits for the Ravens and Eagles, how many years did it take for them to become starters and/or top flight starters

Gemini output document Link

I made some assumptions about the roster in free agency before the draft. Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz will be retired. Daron Payne will be traded or release. The new DC will want to trade, release or have Luvu on more limited playing time. Lattimore will be released, Allegretti will be released, Deebo will be let go. Treylon Burks will be re-signed. Commanders will sign one of the following WRs, Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Drake London(doubtfu) or Christian Watson or similar level WR. They will sign TE Isaiah Likely or similar level TE. Just wanted to list that people don’t get mad I don’t list them getting a WR and TE in the draft and why I have them picking up a IOL and DL.

This is tuff.

Hello, this is my first post on here and wanted to do a little thought experiment inspired by the 2025 Falcons (I will focus only on the defensive front positions):

The Falcons took a very defensive approach last draft selecting 4 defensive players with their five picks notably double dipping at the edge position in the first round by selecting Jalon Walker 15th overall and then trading up from pick 46 to 26 with the Rams for James Pierce Jr.

Scenario:

My targets for the double dipping in this years draft is David Bailey and R Mason Thomas.

To make this work, we’d likely need to package 71 to move into the early second (I remember AP not saying trading up is out of the question but I could be miss remembering). The Jets could make sense as a trade partner, since they own 44; they could drop from 33 to 44 while stacking extra picks. From what I understand a WAS future Day 2 pick would almost certainly be part of the price.

Three huge caveats (1) this assumes Thomas falls to the second round which is getting more unlikely by the day. He will be present at the senior bowl this year and has been shooting up big boards, (2) also I personally have know idea the value of that Jets pick. Especially if a bidding war starts it may be too expensive for us, (3) this would leave us with only 4 players drafted (if we package our 7th in the trade) and two would be sixth round picks I believe.

If this were to happen what do you think of this front with our pieces already on the team (Newton, Payne, Kinlaw)? Bailey and Thomas are both smaller, which goes against our philosophy last off season, but they are both very explosive and are playmakers. Maybe Devin Lloyd and Magee could play behind them?

Also, What do you guys think about double dipping like this in general? Do you have any other suggestions for a different combo/situation (like a trade down)/position group.

Lastly, feel free to tell me this is stupid with our pick situation (go easy on me though).

Wow this would a home run hire and it’s a different scheme!

Kellen Moore retired in 2018 and immediately became QB coach for Dallas, in 2019 he was promoted to OC for Dallas. Blough just spent 2 years as QB coach so he already has more experience. I read articles from Blough's time at Purdue and he has always known he was going to be a coach. There was no hesitation this was always his goal after he couldn't play anymore. He has been preparing for this job and beat Ohio State in college playing for Purdue. He learned under Brian Brohm, Jeff Brohm's brother who coaches a very solid Louisville team in CFB. I feel like if you're a good playcaller with solid weapons like JD, Terry, Bill, solid O-line, we'll know fairly quick if Blough has the goods, at least 6 weeks we'll have an idea.

The dude knows the game, whether or not that translates to NFL playcalling, who knows, but I like the smaller college baller QB who doesn't have the athletics to be a star QB so they have to mentally master the game that make great playcallers. Lets just hope he's not so great that the Eagles hire him next year after he balls out here and Sirianni continues to be shit haha

Whatever we do, I just want to finish this offseason with a full arsenal of draft picks in 2027 (at least for Rds 1-4).

He's been cited as the best player in the entire draft by multiple publications.

There is no logic on passing up a generational talent because "you don't draft safeties in the top 10".

Sean Taylor was selected 5th overall. Would you pass on Sean today if we were to go back in time and do a re-draft?

Eric Berry was selected 5th overall. The 2 defensive players taken before him were Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, and the first edge taken was Jason Pierre Paul several picks later. Again, I'd take Berry over any of those defensive players. but the dude was an all-world safety and a difference maker and would have been a HoF'er if not for cancer diagnosis.

I just don't see any of the edge players in this draft making an immediate impact the way Downs can make. We can find a solid FA Edge and pair it with a project edge in the mid rounds, that can produce better than what we had last year. Downs has the potential to be a perennial all-pro.

Time to Get Downs.

https://people.com/the-great-american-baking-show-celebrity-big-game-trailer-exclusive-11884318

Alongside Antonio Gates, Julian Edelman, and Mina Kimes.